999 
FXUS65 KTFX 020952
AFDTFX
 
SOUTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
300 AM MST FRI APR 2 1999
 
FORECAST AREA TO BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS GEOGRAPHICALLY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. UPPER LOW OVER GREAT BASIN FORECAST TO SHIFT TO NEAR THE
SE CORNER OF MT SAT AFTERNOON AS STRONG VORTICITY CENTER ROTATES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE NEXT PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM FORECAST TO
DIG INTO THE PACIFIC NW ON SAT. NGM/AVN DEVELOP CLOSED UPPER LOW WHILE
ETA HAS WEAKER UPPER TROUGH. LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY W OF THE CONTDVD. MODELS TEND TO KEEP SRN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA
DRIER THAN THE NRN PORTION. CHECK OF SOME TIME/HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SHOWS NO SIGNIFICANT LIFT FROM DYNAMICS AND
CHECK OF FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS AIRMASS TO BE STABLE. FOR TODAY WILL
LEAVE IN THREAT OF A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE S. IN THE N SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING SCATTERED AREAS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. AFTER
COORDINATION WITH AVN FORECASTER WILL MENTION PATCHY FOG. FOR TONIGHT
MODELS INDICATE SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPE OVER NRN E SLOPES SO WILL NOT
MENTION FOG AGAIN EVEN THOUGH SKIES SHOULD BE RELATIVELY CLEAR. FOR SAT
MODELS DEVELOP MORE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND ARE LESS STABLE ALTHOUGH
NOT UNSTABLE. AVN/NGM INCREASE RH BUT PREFER DRIER ETA. OVER NRN E
SLOPES MODELS ALSO DEVELOP SOME LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE. OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA WILL GENERALLY RAISE POPS 10 PCT FROM THOSE FOR TODAY.
FOR THE 3 TO 5 DAY PERIOD WILL CONFINE SNOW LIKELY FORECAST FOR EASTER
SUNDAY JUST TO NE MT BASED ON LATEST MRF. ALSO LATEST MRF IS FARTHER S
WITH UPPER LOW OVER THE WRN STATES TUE AFTERNOON THAN RUN FROM LAST
NIGHT. LATEST RUN IS MORE IN LINE WITH IDEA OF 12Z THU ECMWF AND UKMET
RUNS. COULD POSSIBLY DEVELOP SOME SHOWERS OVER WRN PLAINS TUE BUT SINCE
ITS 5TH DAY WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS IS. BLANK
GTF 112 HLN 112 HVR 111