999 FXUS64 KLCH 090124 AFDLCH SOUTHWEST...CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA 730 PM CST MON MAR 8 1999 SFC LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. ASSOCIATED FRONT PRESENTLY MOVING THROUGH EAST TEXAS WITH VERY LITTLE COOL ADVECTION. 50H DIFLUENCE CONTINUES TO CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE OVER MID TO LOWER-MISS VALLEY. WINDS BEGINNING TO PARALLEL FRONT ON SOUTHERN END AND WILL MAKE ATMOS LESS LIKELY FOR SEVERE OVER LCH CWA. YET WITH HIGH HEL VALUES AND ERODED INVERSION WILL STILL SEE A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL FROPA. AGREE WITH ETA FOR CLEARING AFTER MIDNITE FOR BPT..LCH..AEX AND AFTER 1 AM FOR LFT ALONG WITH RAIN CHANCES BECOMING ZERO RESPECTIVELY. ZONAL FLOW WITH NO MAJOR FEATURES TO SPEAK OF TO SET UP OVER SOUTHERN STATES FOR REST OF PERIOD. FRONT WILL STALL IN NORTHERN GULF WASHING OUT BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE WINDS COME AROUND TO SOUTHEAST BY AFTERNOON WED. 17 LCH 53/72/45/70 4000 LFT 56/72/45/71 4000 AEX 52/67/40/72 5000 BPT 52/71/45/72 4000 PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FROM AFTERNOON PACKAGE(130 PM) SFC LOW MOVING EAST OVER N OKLAHOMA WITH FRONT EXTENDING INTO EASTERN TEXAS. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ALONG BOUNDARY WITH A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES. 18Z LCH SOUNDING SHOWS STORM RELATIVE HELICITIES AT 703 (M/S)2 WITH CAPES INCREASING TO 1500-2000 RANGE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS AHEAD OF LINE WILL HAVE A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR ROTATION WITH CELL MERGERS POSSIBLE. MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WX WILL CONTINUE TO BE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF FA. LINE WILL BE NEAR BPT AROUND 00Z...MOVING THROUGH LA ZONES DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LINE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF FA AFTER MIDNIGHT. BEHIND FRONT STRONG SUBSIDENCE / DRYING AT ALL LEVELS WILL OCCUR. WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES ON TUESDAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. 12 LCH 53/72/45/70 6000 LFT 56/72/45/71 6000 AEX 52/67/40/72 9000 BPT 52/71/45/72 6000