999 
FXUS66 KLOX 032155
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PST WED FEB 3 1999

IN SHORT TERM...SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER
OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL START TAKE A TURN FOR THE COOLER AND 
GLOOMIER. ALL 12Z MODELS HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN 
CALIFORNIA TONIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TURN OUR SURFACE FLOW
ONSHORE TONIGHT AS EVIDENCED BY GOOD ONSHORE TRENDS IN GRADIENT TABLE.
ALSO...ALL MODELS INDICATE VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR EDDY
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...MARINE LAYER IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A STRONG 
RETURN LATE TONIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION...WILL INCLUDE
MENTION OF LOCAL DRIZZLE THURSDAY MORNING AS MODELS INDICATE SOME 
WEAK DYNAMICS OVER THE AREA. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS INDICATE EDDY 
CIRCULATION TO REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW
LITTLE...IF ANY...CLEARING THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA. NGM/AVN ARE FASTER WITH THE SHORTWAVE AND HAVE A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK THAN THE ETA. BUT NO MATTER WHICH TRACK VERIFIES...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL HAVE SOME IMPACT UPON THE AREA. MID-LEVEL MOISTURE 
PROGS ON ALL MODELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY...SO DO NOT THINK SHORTWAVE 
WILL HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY.
HOWEVER...WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR AN EDDY AND 
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW...DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE 
MOUNTAINS. LIFTING ASSOCIATED WITH THE VORTMAX SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO 
GENERATE WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS 
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AREA WILL BE UNDER NVA SO SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TO AT
LEAST PARTLY CLOUDY.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH GREATER MARINE INFLUENCE AND THICKNESS FALLS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVES...TEMPS WILL COOL DOWN QUITE A BIT.   

LAX 1122. THOMPSON.

.LAX...NONE.