999 
FXUS66 KLOX 252224
AFDLOX
SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PST MON JAN 25 1999

HUGE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN ETA AND AVN TODAY AND IT MEANS THE
DIFERENCE BETWEEN RAIN AND NO RAIN FOR THE TUESDAY FORECAST. BOTH
MODELS INITILIZED OK SO THE PROOF OF THE PUDDING WILL BE IN SATELLITE
COMPARISONS THIS EVENING. SINCE CURRENT FORECAST IS WET WILL STICK
WITH THE WETTER ETA BUT WILL NOT INCREASE THE RAIN CHANCE.

TODAYS PROBLEM IS THUNDERSTORMS THE MIX IS JUST RIGHT: DRY COLD AIR
ALOFT AND MOIST AIR AT THE GROUND WITH A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS TO ALLOW
FOR SUNSHINE ALL STIRRED UP BY A VORT MAX FROM THE UPPER LOW AS IT
TRANSLATES OVER THE AREA. NO REASON WHY ANY AREA FROM SBA SOUTWARD
SHOULD NOT HAVE A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM. SATELLITE SHOWS A LINE OF
CBS MOVING IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TONIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER ANY EVENING SHOWERS DIE
OUT...EXCEPT FOR THE CENTRAL COAST WHICH WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AS THE NEXT SYSTEM ROLLS IN. 18Z ETA CONTINUES
THIS TREND.

TUESDAY REMAINS THE PROBLEM ETA BRING IN MOISTURE AND PRECIPITAION
EARLY AND HAS IT LAST THROUGH THE DAY ENDING BY NIGHT FALL. AGAIN NOT
SURE THIS IS THE MODLE TO GO FOR BUT WILL STAY WITH IT FOR NOW. WILL
MAKE WORDING INCREASING CLOUDS LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SO NO
ONE WILL BE CAUGHT OFF GAURD BYT HE SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM.

NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF TEMPERATURE ADVECT NEXT DAY AS THE ATMOSPHERIC
TEMPERTURE REMAINS BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES BOTH LOWS AND HIGH WILL
DEPEND ON CLOUD COVER SO NOTMUCH CHANGE FROM TODAY FOR TUESDAY AND
THEN WARMING WEDNESDAY. BOTH NIGHT SHOULD BE PRETTY CLEAR AND THUS
TEMPS WILL DROP. 

LAX 2420. RORKE.

.LAX...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLAX).