000 
TTAA00 KBOX 132014
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
315 PM EST WED JAN 13 1999

SHORT TERM: H8 TROF AND ASSOCIATED S/WV ENERGY PRODUCING A BAND OF
S- ACRS NH AND MA. THIS WL END THIS EVE AS TROF ENERGY SWINGS E OF FA.

LONG TERM: PREFER AVN FOR UPCOMING EVENT AS DOES HPC/OKX/ALB AND
GYX. ETA IS MUCH TO PROGRESSIVE WITH SUCH AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN. NGM
A BIT TO SLOW AS THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH S/WV ENERGY ENTERING WEST
CST TO TRAVERSE OH VLLY TROF EWD. HENCE AVN MODEL OF CHOICE ESP WITH
TIMING OF QPF.

WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT WL PRODUCE OVERRUNNING LGT SN BY NOON WRN MA AND
NLT 21-00Z FOR SE CST AND ISLANDS. HELD OFF ON WATCH AS AVN QPF
FIELDS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT QPF WL OCCUR LATE 3RD PD AND 4TH PD.
THEREFORE WL HIGHLIGHT POT IN SPSBOS. NOT MUCH SN WITH THIS EVENT AS
CRITICAL THICKNESS H85-H7 (154DM) BLOWS THRU FA ARND 00Z FRI. AT
48HRS ETA WANTS TO ADVANCE SFC WV EWD ALNG CSTL FNT. THIS VRY WELL
COULD HAPPEN AS LI/S INDICATE NICE BOUNDARY ALNG CSTL PLAIN. HWR
EVEN PROLONGED PD OF E WNDS WL ERODE LO-LVL COLD AIR ALNG THE CST AS
INDICATED BY H1000-850 THICKNESS. THEREFORE WENT WITH CHANGEOVER TO PLAIN
RAIN FOR CST ON FRI.

MARINE: WL CONT GALE FOR TONIGHT AND THU AS GRADIENT AND BLYR WNDS
SUPPORT UP TO 35 KTS IN NE FLO.

WRKZFP AVAILABLE FOR ANY COMMENTS/SUGGESTIONS. THANKS HPC/OKX/ALB
AND GYX FOR COORD.

GLW ALL COASTAL WATERS.

NOCERA