999 
FXUS63 KLBF 112025
AFDLBF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
221 PM CST MON JAN 11 1999

...FORECAST CHALLENGE TO BE TEMPERATURES...

CLIPPER LOW TO TRANSIT SE ALONG SEMI-STNRY BOUNDARY TO THE NE TONIGHT
WITH MILD AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE E
OF THE FA BY THIS EVENING WITH A SERIES OF WEAKER 5H IMPULSES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE NW FLOW. WV IMAGERY SHOWS THREE DISTINCT STRONGER 5H
DISTURBANCES OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. TWO OF THE DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
E AND WEAKEN THE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
TRANSITS SOUTH ACROSS FA TUESDAY BY EVENING.

THE NGM/ETA MODELS ARE CLOSE IN AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST
CYCLE WITH 5H DISTURBANCE TO MOVE INTO WRN NEB BY AFTERNOON AND BE
EXITING FA AT 13/00Z. NGM DEPICTS STRONGER INTENSITY TO WAVE YET
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH BOTH WITH MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TO
SPREAD OVER SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS AND COLD FRONT SINKS
SWD. 1000-500MB LAYER 5400 M THICKNESS CONTOUR PASSES TO THE S WITH
MODERATION IN AIRMASS TO OCCUR BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS FRONT
BEGINS TO RETURN E AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL RETURN FROM THE W WITH WV IMAGERY
SHOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO THE WORK WITH AS 5H DISURBANCES MOVE
SE IN NW UPPER FLOW. TEMPERATURES NEAR GUIDANCE WITH READINGS
FALLING INTO THE 20S.

TUESDAY CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE FA IN THE MORNING AS
DISTURBANCES PHASE IN THE W. MOISTURE IS LIMITED IN THE LOWER
LAYERS AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SWD WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND
WLY SFC FLOW TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES NEAR FWC GUIDANCES. CAA INCREASES
FROM THE NE TO THE SW WITH WARMEST READINGS OVER SWRN FA.

BY EVENING THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING S OF FA WITH SUBSIDENCE TO
INCREASE ALOFT AS DISTURBANCE MOVES E. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH
FRONTAL SYSTEMS WITH ADDITIONAL CLOUDS TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
WITH GUIDANCES CLOSE. OVERNIGHT THE SFC HIGH BULDS SE AND RIDGES SW
INTO THE SWRN US. THE UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LAYERS ACROSS THE W TO PROVIDE FOR SOME
FLURRIES BUT NO ORGANIZED FORCING FOR POPS TO BE INCLUDED.

WEDNESDAY MORNING THE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD SE TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO MAINTAIN UPSLOPE FLOW AND SUFFICIENT LIFT
FOR CLOUDS AND FLURRIES IN THE W. WAA RETURNS IN THE W DURING THE
DAY WITH TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY REBOUND AS COLD AIRMASS RETREATS TO
THE NE.

FOR THE EXTENDED 5H LONGWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE E WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SNOW WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS IN THE WEST.
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY UPPER RIDGE BUILDS E WITH LEESIDE TROUGH IN THE
W WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LBF...NONE

KECK