999 
FXUS74 KMEG 052135
SFDMEM

TENNESSEE/MISSOURI BOOTHEEL FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
333 PM CST TUE JAN 5 1999

WARM ADVECTION ALREADY IN PROGRESS. MEM WARMER THAN ITS BEEN
SINCE ABOUT 2 HOURS AFTER FROPA ON SATURDAY. EVEN CSV HAS RISEN 4
DEG IN LAST HOUR. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING SOUTHEAST INTO
STATE. SEEING ECHOES ON WSR-88D..MAINLY ALOFT. CLOSEST REPORTING
STATION WITH PRECIP IS MLI..500 MI NORTH AND 30 DEG COLDER.

STILL EXPECT INCREASE IN MOISTURE..AS LOWER DECK MOVING ACROSS TX
AND WRN LA..BUT CLIPPER SHOULD NOT TAP INTO THIS UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL BE A VERY LIGHT PRECIP EVENT..MAINLY LESS
THAN 0.10 INCH LIQUID. SOUNDINGS INDICATE PRECIP WILL START AS
LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET..THEN CHANGE TO RAIN ACROSS MOST AREAS ON
WEDNESDAY. PRECIP SHOULD END ACROSS THE WEST DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY..AND BY MIDNIGHT EVEN IN E TN. POTENTIAL FOR AN INCH OR TWO
OF SNOW IN THE EXTREME NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT..NOT MUCH MORE
THAN A DUSTING ELSEWHERE.

NGM SHOVES FRONT MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN ETA/AVN SOLUTION..BUT WITH
ORIENTATION OF UPPER FLOW..THIS LOOKS OVERDONE. CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO CLEAR ON THURSDAY..AND COLDER AIR SHOULD NOT BE AS MUCH
OF A FACTOR. WILL KEEP THURSDAY DRY FOR NOW..AND INTRODUCE A CHANCE
OF RAIN FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION BEGINS AGAIN AHEAD OF
NEXT SYSTEM.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST WILL BE DIFFICULT NEXT FEW DAYS. EXPECT ANY
DROPOFF IN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE DURING THE EVENING..WITH STEADY OR
SLOWLY RISING TEMPS AFTER THAT. WILL SHAVE A FEW DEGREES OFF OF
2100Z OBS FOR VERIFICATION. WILL CUT HIGHS WEDNESDAY DUE TO
CLOUDS..AND NGM TENDS TO WARM ARCTIC AIR TOO QUICK. WILL SHADE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY TEMPS TOWARD FAN GUIDANCE DUE TO
EXPECTED FRONTAL POSITION. WRKZFP AVAILABLE BY REQUEST FOR MRX/BNA.
10

.MEM...NONE.