000 
TTAA00 KILM 010652

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
151 AM EST TUE DEC 1 1998

RAH: SUG RAISING TEMPS AROUND LBT TO MID 70S TODAY.

CAE: CURRENT FCST LOOKS OK.

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL CONT TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EAST INTO THE RIDGE. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM
MOVING OFF THE COAST THIS AFTN WITH LITTLE TO NO LIFT BEING
PRODUCED ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND ALL OF THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
AS SHIFTED WELL N AND E OF THE REGION. CD FNT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA EARLY THIS
AFTN. SATL IS SHOWING A THIN BAND OF CLOUDS ALONG THE FNT WITH ONLY
A FEW RADAR RETURNS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE
THAN A FEW CLOUDS AS THE FNT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE W SO THERE WILL BE LITTLE MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FNT. ONCE THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...HIGH
PRES WILL QUICKLY RETURN BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. NOTICED THAT
THE ETA WAS SETTING UP A GOOD OVERRUNNING PATTERN FOR WED. NE WINDS
AT THE SFC AND SW WINDS AT H8 WITH MOISTURE RETURNING ALONG THE
COAST AT H8 AS WELL. WITH A LACK OF A BOUNDARY TO ACT ON NOT
EXPECTING ANY PRECIP BUT COULD BE MORE CLOUD COVER THAT EXPECTED.
WILL HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE IF FUTURE MODEL RUNS CONT THIS TREND.

TEMPS ARE OFF TO A WARM START THIS AM AND EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL
HAVE NO PROBLEM HITTING THE MID 70S BEFORE THE FNT MOVES THROUGH.
PROB NEED TO NUDGE UP INLAND SE NC TEMPS A LITTLE. MYR MAY BREAK
ANOTHER RECORD TODAY AS CURRENT RECORD IS 71.

CWF: ALMOST ALL OF THE RW ACTIVITY HAS NOW SHIFTED E OF THE WATERS
AS THE SW FLOW QUICKS IN SO PROB WON/T NEED TO INCLUDE ANY RAIN FOR
TODAY. WILL START WITH SW WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE NW TODAY
BEHIND THE FNT. FLOW QUICKLY SWINGS AROUND TO THE NE TON AS THE
HIGH BUILDS IN. GRADIENT LOOKS TIGHT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 20 KT TON
BUT NOT ANTICIPATING SCA CONDS. SPEEDS QUICKLY DROP OFF WED AS THE
GRADIENT LOOSENS.

ILM BB 075/047 073/046 077 -00
FLO BU 077/045 073/045 079 000

IRELAND