043 
FXUS43 KFGF 190751
AFDFAR

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
250 AM CDT SAT SEP 19 1998

FIRST PERIOD DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRST PERIOD IS TIMING AND
LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA.  ELEVATED DEEP
MOIST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
MORNING AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN LOW LEVELS INTERACTS WITH WARM
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.  RECONSTRUCTED 00Z BISMARCK SOUNDING
INDICATED CAPES OF LESS THAN 1000 JOULES/KILOGRAM OVER THE AREA.
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMIT THROUGH REST OF THE EARLY
MORNING.

SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA HAS CONTINUED TO DEEPEN AS OF
06Z.  NGM AND ETA HAVE SIMILAR SOLUTIONS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW.
HOWEVER...NGM FORECASTS THE TRACK FARTHER NORTH THAN THE ETA.
CONSIDERING LOCATION OF LOW AT 06Z AND 2 AND 3-HOUR PRESSURE
CHANGES...IT APPEARS THAT THE ETA FORECAST MAY BE CORRECT ONE AT THIS
TIME.  JET MAXIMUM AT 300 MB IS PROGGED TO BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA LATER TODAY.

COMBINATION OF THE STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE...JET MAXIMUM...FORECAST
CAPES OF AT LEAST 1500 JOULES/KILOGRAM AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM
SOUTHWEST MEANS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY AGAIN OVER WEST CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA LATER TODAY.  SEE EXCELLENT DISCUSSION BY SPC
(SWODY1) FOR MORE INFORMATION.

AS MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST OVER NORTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE LOW
MOVES INTO EASTERN MINNESOTA LATER TODAY...EXPECT PRECIPITATION IN
NORTHERN PART OF COUNTY WARNING AREA TO BE SHOWERS OR RAIN.  MOS HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEEM REASONABLY CLOSE.

ANDERSON