868 
FPUS03 KCHS 080715
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
310 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 1998

00Z ETA NOT AVBL AGAIN. STRONG CDNFT WL PUSH S ACROSS THE FA NEAR 00 TO 
06Z TIME WINDOW. BEST MSTR WL BE POOLED JUST AHEAD OF FRONT WITH HIEST 
POPS NEEDED FOR MID/LT AFTN DURING MAX HTNG AND THIS EVE NEAR FROPA. 
CONSIDERABLE ENERGY ALOFT DIVES UNUSUALLY FAR S FOR THIS TIME OF YR 
WHILE CARVING OUT THE UPR TROF. SOMEWHAT STRONG MID-UPR LVL WINDS 
PROVIDING GUD DEEP LYR SHEAR. CUD SEE BIT OR RR JET QUAD GRAZE E 
CAROLINAS AS PER AVN FCST 300 MB AT 00Z. CAPES WL BE ABT 2-3K WITH 
PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. EXPECT SCT TO BKN CONVECTION TO 
FORM IN MSTR CONVGNC BAND ASSOC WITH PREFRONTAL TROF. POSBL SVR MAINLY 
FROM WIND GUSTS. SELS HAS ALL SC AND NRN PART OF SE GA NR SAV RVR VLLY 
IN SVR OTLK...PLAN TO ISSUE SPS TO HILITE THREAT FOR LT AFTN AND EVE. 

FWC GUID LOOKS A BIT LOW ON POPS...RECOMMEND BUMPING UP TO A HIER CHC 
POPS (40 OR 50 PCT). ALSO NOT A BAD IDEA TO MENTION POSBL FEW TSTMS SVR 
IN ZNS (WATCH MIGHT GO OUT LATER...OR CAN RELAY CONCERN FOR NEXT FCST 
UPDATE). TEMPS...FWC HAS GENLY BEEN A SHADE HI LATELY BUT WL START OFF 
ALREADY SVRL DEG HIER THAN PREV MORNINGS. EXPECT LOWER 90S INCLUDING 
NEAR CST WITH STRONG OFFSHR WIND COMPONENTS. SOME MID 90S FURTHER INL? 
TONITE MAY BE TOO QUICK ON COOLOFF ESP FOR GA AS CD AMS TAKES PERHAPS A 
LTL LONGER. WED COOL BREEZY AND DRY WITH LOWER 80S FOR MAX TEMPS. 

AS EXPECTED WL RAISE FLAGS FOR SMALL CRAFT ADVIS TDA WITH STRONG 
GRADIENT WORKING IN ADVANCE OF FRONT. 850 WINDS OF 20-25 KT THIS MORN 
ON NGM RAISE TO 30-35 KT NEAR CSTL SECTIONS. WUD ALSO LIKE TO RAISE 
LAKE WIND ADVIS FOR EASTERN (SANTEE/COOPER) LAKES WITH 15 TO 25 KT 
LIKELY TDA. WITH SURGE OF COOL DRY AIR OVR WARM ATLC WATERS...WL LOOK 
FOR STRONG MIXING AND WINDS PROBABLY STAYING UP HIER/LONGER THAN GUID 
INTO WED. MRP HINTS THIS W/23 KT NR SAV 12Z WED. LOOK FOR 20 KT+ WIND/ 
SOLID SCA CONTINUING THRU WED MORN BEHIND FRONT WITH DECRS BY LT AFTN.

CCF
CHS ARPT  92/66/82/60  5500
CHS CITY  91/71/81/69  5500
SAV ARPT  93/69/83/60  45-0

S CSTL FA...
...LAKE WIND ADVISORY...
.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING. INCREASING AFTERNOON CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING. A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY SEVERE. 
BREEZY WITH HIGHS 90 TO 95 (INLAND S CST LOWER TO MID 90S). GUSTY WEST 
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH. 
.TONIGHT...GOOD CHANCE OF EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. PARTIAL 
CLEARING LATE AT NIGHT. LOWS (INLAND S CST: MID 60S) UPPER 60S INLAND 
TO LOWER 70S COAST. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH EARLY SHIFTING TO NORTH. 
CHANCE OF RAIN 50 PERCENT.
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY...BREEZY AND COOLER. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. WINDS 
NEAR THE COAST NORTHEAST 15 TO 20 MPH IN THE MORNING...DECREASING TO 10 
TO 15 MPH BY LATE AFTERNOON.  

LAVIS