923 
FPUS03 KBGM 230709
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
300 AM EDT SUN AUG 23 1998

SFC WMFNT FROM NRN MI INTO NE OH AND CNTRL PA THIS MRNG WILL DRIFT
SLOWLY NE AS GOOD 850 WAA DVLPS TDY AND SPREADS NE OVR CWA.  TSTMS
CRRNTLY DVLPG N OF FNT ACRS CNTRL WI LIKLEY TO KEEP RIDING BNDRY SE
INTO MI BY ERLY MRNG AND WEAKEN TOWARD SUNUP WHEN LOW LVL JET WEAKENS.
WMFNT TO LIFT OVR CWA DURG DAY TDY WITH POTNL FOR MORE CONVECTION TO
FIRE UP AGAIN THIS AFTN AS PLUME OF MSTR SEEN ON WV IMAGERY INTERSECTS
BNDRY DURG MAX HEATING.  EXPECT ONLY SCT POPS TDY AND THIS EVE AS NO
REAL UPPER LVL SUPPORT TO COMBINE WITH LOW LVL FEATURES. HWVR MORE
UPPER SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER TNGT AND MON AS SHT WV NOW OVR DAKOTAS MOVES
E. Q-VECTOR FIELDS SHOW POTNL FOR MORE SUBSTANTIAL LIFT ON MON WITH THIS
WV.  LAPSE RATES AND LI FAIRLY STABLE TDY BUT BECOME MORE UNSTABLE TNGT
AND MON DUE TO LOW LVL WAA AND WEAK CAA AT 500 MB ASSOCD WITH WEAK
UPPER TROF. WILL KEEP SCT POPS FOR TDY AND THIS EVE AND INCRS SLGTLY
FOR MON DESPITE FWC GUIDANCE.  TEMPS LOOK GOOD WITH WARMER AND MORE
HUMID CONDS ON MON.  ZNS OUT SHORTLY.

.BGM...NONE.
HOLMES