898 
FPUS03 KILM 141809
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 1998

RAH/CAE: CHC FOR CST TNGT W/20% INL. MINS 70 INL 70-75 CST.
WED...50-60% CST W/30-40% INL. MNTN OF TSRA. MAXS MID 80S. KP HIER
CHC FOR CST WED NGT W/MINS MID 70S. THU...NNE TO KP @ LEAST CHC
W/MAXS UPPER 80S CST W/NR 90 INL. CWF: PER TELCO W/MHX-RAH...SCA WL GO
UP FOR SEAS APCHG 6 FT. SPDS 15-20 @ BEST BECMG SE WED & THEN SSW WED NGT
INTO THU.

ZNS: AVN CONTS TO B CONSISTENT W/UPPER-SFC LOW FURTHER W & MORE
ENERGETIC. NGM HAS COME ARND W/ADDG MORE QPF. ETA APPRS TO B VERIFYG
WELL W/FTRES PER SATL IMAGERY. PER COORD CALL THIS MRNG...WFOMIA MADE
A GUD PT OF SYSM PSBLY MOVG SLOWER THAN PROGGD DUE TO WK STEERG WNDS.
THIS CUD DELAY ONSET OF RA & PSBLY PROLONG THE DURATION. AM GOING ON A
LIMB (OUCH) & INCG CHCS OF RA/TSRA LATER TNGT THRU THU. ALSO WL SLOW
THGS DOWN A PEG. BEST LIFT REMAINS ALG THE CST & OFFSHORE AS S/WV & WK
SFC LOW TRAVEL N. GARP SNDGS HAD SE DIR SETTG UP THRU H7 (15KTS) W/PWS
GOING TO 2 @ THE CST BY 24-36 HRS. RA/TSRA MOVG IN OFF THE WTR CUD B
HVY @ TIMES (IF THGS PAN OUT). ETA INSTABILITY PARAMETERS SUPPORT
TSRA WED-THU. DWPTS IN THE MID DRNG THE SAME TIME FRAME. MDLS
HAVE VORT MAX N OF THE CWA BY 48 HRS. THEY DIFFER ON SFC LOW PLACEMENT
W/NGM-AVN KPG IT FURTHER S & INL WHILE ETA HAS IT NR MHX. THU LUKS TO
B MORE CONVECTIVE W/HIGH DWPTS & SSW FLOW HELPG TO KP AIRMASS UNSTABLE.
I CONTD THE BLEND OF THE FAN/FWC ON POPS. WL USE FAN MINS DUE TO TROPICL
REGIME SETTG UP. GOING A SHADE UNDER GUID ON MAXS.

CWF: E DIR BECMG SE LATE TNGT INTO WED. AS SYSM CHUGS N...SPDS WL
TURN TO SSW WED NGT-THU. TIMELY/PLACEMENT OF SFC/UPPER LOW IS A BIG
KEY. WL HOLD SPDS @ 15 KTS W/BRIEF SHOT TO 20. BTR CHC OF THIS UP
TWD MHX/S WAY. PROLONGED FETCH WL ALSO MAKE IT TRICKY FOR SEAS. SEAS NR
6 FT BY WED. CUD B THE SAME DOWN SC BUT SOONER. ANY THOUGHTS CHS/CAE?.

CCF: ILM 073/086 075/087 076 365
     FLO 073/090 074/090 075 244

THANX TO MONEY-MAN/RICKY FM RAH & JOHN(MHX) FOR GREAT INSIGHT.

JAH