000 
TTAA00 KCRP 240740

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
245 AM CDT WED JUN 24 1998

SHORT TERM...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE FIRST PERIOD WILL BE POPS.
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING GOOD SUBSIDENCE OVER INLAND AREAS.
HOWEVER...UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPED OVER FAR WESTERN GULF ON TUESDAY
AND WAS AIDING IN -SHRA DEVELOPMENT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS OF FAR
SOUTH TX THIS MORNING.  ETA AND 03Z RUC SHOWING TROUGH TO BECOME
POSITIVELY TILTED OVER WEST GULF TODAY.  DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
HAVE ALSO BEEN DEVELOPING FURTHER DOWN THE TX COAST THE PAST FEW
DAYS.  WITH DECENT SUBSIDENCE AND FAIRLY WARM 500 MB TEMPS...WILL OPT
TO KEEP POPS BELOW 20 PERCENT IN CRP AND VCT AREAS WITH NO POPS IN
LRD AREA.  WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER
THAN FAN/FWC.  WINDS WERE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN ANTICIPATED ON
TUESDAY...SO WILL BUMP THEM UP A LITTLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

LONG TERM...MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP SURFACE LOW WEST OF YUCATAN.
HOWEVER... ETA SHOWING TIGHTENING GRADIENT AND BACKING FLOW OVER
COASTAL BEND ON THURSDAY.  TIME SECTIONS FROM ETA ARE SHOWING
DEEPENING MOISTURE AND SOME LIFT WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MODERATE POPS
OVER AREA.  NGM/AVN ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE IN THESE AREAS.  AFTER
COORDINATING WITH BRO...THINK BEST SOLUTION IS TO GO WITH 20 PERCENT
CHANCE OVER CRP AREA AND SEE HOW NEXT MODEL RUNS PAN OUT.

MARINE...CURRENT MARINE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD.  ONLY CHANGE WOULD BE TO
INCREASE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGH THE PERIOD.  MAY NEED TO
ADJUST WINDS TO EASTERLY DIRECTION ON THURSDAY ESPECIALLY IF THE ETA
SOLUTION IS USED.

CRP BB 095/077 093/077 094 1-2
NGP    090/080 089/079 089
ALI    098/076 097/075 096
VCT BB 097/075 096/074 095 --1
LRD BB 103/079 102/078 102 00-

CRP/NGP/ALI...
.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 COAST.
SOUTHEAST WIND 10 TO 15 MPH THIS MORNING...INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOWS IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO NEAR 80
COAST.  SOUTHEAST WIND DECREASING TO 5 TO 10 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S INLAND TO NEAR 90 COAST.  EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WIND NEAR 15 MPH.

VCT...
.TODAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S.  SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND
10 TO 15 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOWS IN THE MID 70S.  SOUTH WIND
DECREASING TO NEAR 5 MPH.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A LESS THAN 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.  SOUTHEAST WIND 10
TO 15 MPH.

LRD...
.TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY.  HIGH 100 TO 103.  SOUTHEAST WIND 15 TO 20
MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY.  LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S.  SOUTHEAST WIND 15
TO 20 MPH AND GUSTY THIS EVENING...DECREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH AROUND
MIDNIGHT.
.THURSDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY.  HIGH 100 TO 103.  SOUTHEAST WIND 15 T~O 20
MPH.
AP...72