015 
FPUS03 KMHX 181823
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
222 PM EDT THU JUN 18 1998

RDU: QUIET WX FOR ERN NC THRU MOST OF THE DAY FRI. MOSTLY SKC
TONIGHT WITH LOW/MID 70S FOR LOW TEMPS. ON FRI...MAY BE ABLE
TO SNEAK BY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY FCST...ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF HIGH
LVL MOISTURE MAKE PARTLY CLOUDY A SAFE BET. CAN INTRO SLGT CHC
LATE DAY THUNDER INLAND ZONES WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO TDA BUT DEW
POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WILL ALLOW HEAT INDICIES TO
RISE TO AROUND 100 DEGREES INLAND. FRI NIGHT PARTLY CLOUDY AND
RISK OF SHRA/TSRA (20/30 PCNT). SAT...MOSTLY SUNNY INLAND AND
PARTLY CLOUDY COAST...LTL CHANGE IN HIGH TEMPS AND PROBABLY A
SLGT CHC TSTM MAINLY ALG THE COAST BUT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
LATE AFTN IN COASTAL PLAIN.
  
CWF: INCREASING LOW LVL JETTING FRI AFTN INTO FRI NIGHT MAY ALLOW
THE TOWERS TO REACH A SUSTAINED 20 KT AT TIMES. WILL NOT MENTION
ANY FLAGS AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL INCREASE SEAS FROM HATTERAS S
TO 5 FT WITH THE FRISKIER WSW FLOW. TROUGH WILL BE SOMEWHERE ALG
THE COAST SAT MORNING BUT WILL LIKELY SLOW TO A CRAWL AS IT MOVES
OFFSHORE...SO WILL PROBABLY MAINTAIN A W TO SW FLOW DURING SAT.

DISC: NOT MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS ERN NC TIL LATE FRI AS 
SFC MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AT A MINIMUM DESPITE THE ATMOSPHERE RAPIDLY
DESTABILIZING EARLY FRI AFTN. THE BEST SHOT OF WEAK UVV SHOULD COME
FRI EVENING/NIGHT AS A SHORT WAVE EJECTING FROM NRN PLAINS CUT-OFF
FLATTENS THE E COAST RIDGING AND SCOOTS THRU THE MID ATLC REGION IN
A RATHERED SHEARED STATE. SFC MCON SHOULD INCREASE LATE FRI OVER THE
SANDHILLS AND PIEDMONT AND WORK EWD DURING THE EVENING. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST TO ALLOW SOME CONVECTION TO STAY ALIVE ON ITS
TREK THRU ERN NC DURING THE EVENING BUT DEEP LAYERED WLY FLOW LIKELY
TO KEEP ANY ACTIVITY WDLY SCT AT BEST. AGREE WITH ILM THAT SAT IS
REMINISCENT OF YSTDY EXCEPT THINK COASTAL AREAS MAY ACTUALLY GET AN
ISOLATED TSRA THIS TIME.

.MHX...NONE.

RVT