241 
FPUS3 KTUL 252038
AFDTUL

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
340 PM CDT MON MAY 25 1998

AIRMASS HAS RECOVERED NICELY FROM EARLY MORNING MCS DESPITE 
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER. FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME STATIONARY FROM 
BENTON COUNTY AR TO RIGHT OVER THE FCST OFFICE HERE IN TULSA TO FDR 
(WHERE OFFICE CHASERS JUST CHECKED IN FROM) TO SFC LOW OVER ABI. 
WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING INTO 
WRN TX ATTM.

ADAP INDICATING STRONG MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY AND AS THE SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE AREA...EXPECT WIDESPREAD 
SHOWER AND TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. INITIAL 
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR OVER WRN/NW TX WITH ACTIVITY THEN DEVELOPING 
NORTHEAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO ERN OK/NW AR THIS EVENING. WIND 
PROFILES EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC STORMS BUT 
LATEST VWP FROM KSRX STILL HAS ME CONCERNED. HOPEFULLY FLOW WILL 
WEAKEN AS PROGGED AND PREVENT A RECURRENCE OF LAST NIGHT...THAT WAY 
HAIL AND STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT. WILL 
GO WELL ABOVE THE GUIDANCE POPS TONIGHT IN SE OK/NW AR WITH 
CATEGORICAL POPS NEAR THE RED RIVER. WILL ALSO KEEP LOW POPS NORTH OF 
THE FRONT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED STORM GOING UP IN THE 
UPSLOPE FLOW OVER NW OK/SW KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING WHICH 
WOULD THEN TRACK TOWARDS NE OK. WILL MENTION SEVERE STORMS SOUTH OF 
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT.

FRONT SHOULD GET A PUSH SOUTH TONIGHT BY THE CONVECTION AT LEAST DOWN 
INTO SE OK WHERE IT WILL STALL AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE STARTING 
TO MOVE BACK NORTH LATER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VERY 
UNSTABLE AIRMASS PROGGED TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA NORTH OF THE WARM 
FRONT SO NEED TO CONTINUE POPS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CHANCES 
SHOULD BE LESSENING BY WEDNESDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND 
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. HAVE HAD TORNADOES IN THE 
TUL CWA 3 YEARS IN A ROW ON MAY 26TH...THATS A BAD OMEN FOR 
TOMORROW.

THE HEAT RETURNS LATER IN THE WEEK WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA AND 
SFC BOUNDARIES REMAINING TO THE NORTH SO HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE 
THE RULE IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS.

GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE WITH WARMUP BY WEDNESDAY AS FRONT 
LIFTS NORTH AND SUNSHINE BECOMES MORE ABUNDANT.

FCSTID = 5
TUL   62  82  65  87 /  30  20  20  20
FSM   65  83  65  89 /  70  40  30  20
MLC   65  83  66  89 /  70  40  30  20
BVO   60  82  63  87 /  20  20  20  20
FYV   61  80  60  84 /  50  30  20  20
IDB   65  84  65  90 /  80  50  30  20
BYV   61  80  60  84 /  50  30  20  20
MIO   61  81  62  85 /  30  20  20  20
MKO   64  82  64  87 /  50  30  20  20
F10   62  82  65  87 /  30  20  20  20
HHW   65  84  65  90 /  80  50  30  20

.TUL...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.

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