613 
FPUS03 KMHX 250740
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
235 AM EST WED MAR 25 1998

RDU: PARTLY CLOUDY TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY ON
THU.  MODERATING TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS TODAY LOW
60S...LOWS TONIGHT MID 40S AND HIGHS THU EXHIBITING A LARGE RANGE
WITH INLAND MAXES IN THE LOW 70S AND BEACHES LOW 60S AT BEST WITH
OCEAN WATER TEMPS IN THE LOW 50S.  NO SIG PCPN EXPECTED.

CWF: STARTING TO SEE A SURGE IN SPEEDS WITH BRIEF SHOT OF CAA AS
DEPICTED IN NGM GARP FIELDS.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN THE AFTERNOON TO
15 KT OR LESS AND CONTINUE LGT OVERNIGHT.  ON THU LARGE TEMP
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN LAND AND WATER WILL PRODUCE A FRISKY RESULTANT
BREEZE WITH SPEEDS HIGHER NEAR SHORE (15-20 KT) THAN OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DISC: GETTING A SINKING FEELING TRYING TO WRITE THIS TITANIC OF A
FORECAST WITHOUT THE 00Z ETA  THE NGM/AVN WHERE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT ON HANDLING FEATURES IN WHAT PROMISES TO BE A RATHER BENIGN
FORECAST.  MAIN WX STORY WILL BE THE MUCH HYPED SPRING WARM UP WHICH
SHOULD BEGIN IN EARNEST ON THU.

THE 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW A SHORT WAVE
EMERGING OUT OF THE MID WEST AS THE EASTERN UPPER TROF HAS ONE LAST
HURRAH.  THE MODELS SEEMED A LITTLE SLOW TO BRING IN THE UPPER LVL
MOISTURE WITH THIS FTR TODAY AND THINK ILM HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS
IN LATEST TAF WITH BKN CS BY LATE MORNING.  COMBINATION OF INC
CLOUDS AND MIXING THIS AM WILL PREVENT WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FROM
DEVELOPING.  1000/850 THKNS OFF THE NGM WOULD PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE
MID 60S.  A SHAVED A FEW DEGREES OFF THIS DUE TO CLOUDS AND CAA AND
LOW 60S PER FWC LOOK ON TRACK.

TONIGHTS LOWS WILL DEPEND ON HOW AC FORMS.  THE NGM INDICATED >70%
RH AT 700 MB THROUGH 12Z THU SO OCNL BKN MID CLOUDS FOR TONIGHT
SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN THE MID 40S.  IN ADDITION FLOW COULD BE ONSHORE
BEFORE SUNRISE SE PORTION WHICH COULD EVEN ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE LATE.

THU WILL FEEL LIKE SUMMER...AWAY FROM THE CHILLY OCEAN/SOUND WATERS
THAT IS  EASTEN NC WILL FEEL THE EFFECTS AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS
OVER THE SE AND THE SFC ANTICYCLONE MOVES OFFSHORE ALLOWING A WARM
SW FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.  HAT WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE INTO
THE LOW 60S WHILE PGV/GSB FLIRT WITH 75 DEGREES.  LOW LVL THKNS OFF
THE NGM SUPPORTS MID TO UPPER 70S BUT FEEL THAT LOW 70S IS BETTER AS
FIRST DAY OF A WARM SPELL OFTEN REGISTERS BELOW GUIDANCE.

.MHX...NONE.

ELARDO