140 
FXUS43 KFGF 010302
AFDFAR

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
902 PM CST SAT JAN 31 1998

1ST PERIOD DISCUSSION...CLOUDS/TEMPS AND FOG FCST CONCERN FOR TNGT.
SFC TROF WITH WIND SHIFT TO NW NOW THRU ALL OF CWA. GUD AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND TROF IN CAA SEEN ON IR LOOP ATTM ALTHO TEMPORARY AREAS OF
ONLY MID-CLOUD ALSO APPARENT IN NCNTRL ND AND INTO SRN MB. SUM FOG ATTM
ESP MN SIDE BUT VSBYS GENERALLY 3-5SM WITH ANY FZDZ FURTHER EAST. 

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF AXIS NOW IN ERN ND WITH MID/HI CLOUDS SEEN
STREAMING UP ON MN SIDE OF CWA STILL IN SW UPPER FLOW. SLO MOVEMENT OF
FEATURE OVNGT WILL KEEP MN SIDE OF CWA IN MAINLY W/SW UPPER FLO TNGT W
NW ON ND SIDE. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IN FORM OF H5 VORT MAX NW
SEEN SPINNING IN CENTRAL MB SHUD REMAIN N OF MOST OF CWA WITH PSBL
XCPTN OF CLIPPING XTRM NW MN BY MORNING W/SUM FLURRIES.    

APPEARS SFC FNT MOVING SLOWER THAN EARLIER MODEL RUNS INDICATED...WITH
BEST PRESSURE RISES STILL SEEN WELL NORTH IN MB ON LATEST HOURLY RUC
DATA. MUCH COLDER AIR BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY AS WINDS TURN N. H8 CAA NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE TNGT UNTIL AFTER 09Z OR SO WHEN IT REALLY GETS GOING.
528 THICKNESS LINE ONLY SLATED TO MAKE IT TO BORDER BY 09Z. SO BELIV
CURRENT FCST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON LOW TEMPS TNGT TO ONLY DROP SLOWLY WITH
CLOUDS AND THE WEAK CAA SO WON/T BITE ON MUCH LOWER NUMBERS SEEN ON MOS
GUIDANCE FROM 12Z.

DON/T THINK A RETURN TO DENSE FOG CONDITIONS IS IN STORE TNGT AS ALL OF
CWA IN SOMEWHAT DRIER NW SFC FLO INSTEAD OF SOUPY SE. TD/S XPCTD TO
SLOWLY DECREASE TNGT EVEN WITH THE WEAK CAA. CUD SEE SUM VSBYS AROUND
1SM OR SO IN WCNTRL MN AS HIEST TD/S THERE AND WEAK WIND FLO OVNGT BUT
DON/T BELIV IT SHUD BE NEARLY AS WIDE-SPREAD AS LAST NGT. ON ND
SIDE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPSTREAM OBS REPORTING BR ATTM AND STRATUS
NOT NEARLY AS LOW AS LAST NIGHT ATTM. HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MENTION OF AT
LEAST AREAS OF FOG IN FCST WITH SUCH WK WINDS OVNGT AND GUD DEAL OF LOW
LEVEL MOIST STILL PRESENT.

LATE CALL FROM SPOTTER FROM KFAR AREA REPORTED MIX OF RA/SN AND ROADS
GETTING ICY. WILL CONFIRM FROM OTHER SPOTTERS BEFORE ADJUSTING
NOWCAST/FCST UPDATE.

SOROKA