556 
FXUS43 KARX 080823
AFDLSE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
224 AM CST THU JAN 8 1998

MAIN CONCERNS OF THE DAY ARE SNOW CHANCES.

00Z NGM/ETA STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES.  THE ETA TAKES THE SURFACE LOW
FURTHER WEST THAN DOES THE NGM...HOWEVER THEIR OVERALL QPF PATTERNS
TURN OUT TO BE ABOUT THE SAME.  05Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES THE SURFACE
LOW NEAR SOUTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE 6 HOUR FORECAST
POSITION OF THE ETA AND NGM.

HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH MORE OF AN ETA/NGM COMPROMISE SINCE THEY HAVE
BASICALLY THE SAME OUTCOME WITH QPF FOR TODAY.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AS
WELL AS TIME CROSS SECTIONS...AND 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A DRY LAYER
BETWEEN ABOUT 900 MB TO 700 MB.  THIS SHOULD HELP HOLD PRECIP BACK
INITIALLY.  THE DRY LAYER IS FIRST OVERCOME ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THEN BEINGS TO SATURATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REST OF
THE CWFA.
 
TIME CROSS SECTIONS AND PLAN VIEWS OF OMEGA FIELDS INDICATE THAT THE
BEST VERTICAL MOTION WITH THIS SYSTEM SHOULD STRETCH FROM ABOUT MADISON
TOWARDS GREEN BAY.  THIS LINES UP WELL WITH THE QUASI-GEOSTROPIC FIELDS
IN BOTH THE 850-700MB AND 700-500MB LAYERS.

WHAT THIS BREAKS DOWN TO FOR THE ARX CWFA IS THAT THE HEAVIEST SNOW
TODAY SHOULD FALL FROM ADAMS/JUNEAU COUNTIES DOWN TOWARDS GRANT COUNTY.
NORTHWEST OF THAT AREA LOOKS TO BE BETTER SERVED WITH SMALLER SNOW
CHANCES FOR THE FIRST PERIOD.  AFTER TALKING WITH MKX IT SOUNDS LIKE A
GOOD START FOR AMOUNTS IN THE HEAVY SNOW AREA SHOULD FALL INTO THE 3-6
INCH RANGE WHEN ITS ALL SAID AND DONE WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE. NORTH OF THAT AREA IT APPEARS THAT THE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.  LOOKING AT TEMPS HAVE GONE CLOSE
TO NGM GUIDANCE VALUES. 

THANKS TO MKX/DMX/MPX AND GRB THIS MORNING FOR COORDINATION.

KING