000 
WTPA44 PHNL 310900
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
11 PM HST THU OCT 30 1997
 
THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE THAT ORIGINATED NEAR 10N 158W TWO DAYS
AGO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND ADVISORIES ARE NOW BEING
ISSUED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-C...THE EIGHTH TROPICAL CYCLONE
OF THE SEASON. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION.
SINCE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER CAN NOT BE SEEN ON INFRARED DATA...ITS
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATION AND EXTRAPOLATION OF CURVED BANDS.

INITIAL MOTION IS 285/11. ALL MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE TRACK
AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.
 
HABLUTZEL
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 12.5N 168.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 12.9N 169.9W    35 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 13.5N 172.1W    40 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 14.0N 174.3W    45 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 14.6N 176.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 15.4N 179.6E    60 KT5S