000 
TTAA00 KILM 081716

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
115 PM EDT WED OCT 8 1997

5H RDG TO REMAIN OVR THE ILM CWA THRUOUT THE FCST PERIOD. MODELS
INDICATE IT WILL FLATTEN A BIT ON FRI IN RESPONSE TO EJECTING
S/W TROF FROM COLORADO TO EASTERN CANADA. MODELS INDICATE DYNAMICS
ALOFT TO REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE REGION. HOWEVER A TROUGH/WEAK
COOL FRNT EMINATING FROM THIS EJECTING SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ILM CWA LATE FRI AND THEN MORE OR LESS DISSIPATES.

THNK ENUF LOW LVL MOISTURE FOR THU AND FRI TO PRODUCE FEW/SCT CU.
FOR THU NITE AND FRI...DEBRIS HIGH LVL CLDS TO ADVECT ACROSS THE ILM
CWA. WITH THE ADDITION OF TROF/FRNTL CLDS ON FRI THINK A PTLY CLDY
SKIES CULD DO. CULD NOT FIND ENUF CONVINCING EVIDNCE TO STICK A 20 POP IN.

WULD LIKE TO INTRODUCE AREAS OF PATCHY FOG BOTH NITES DUE TO INCREASED
LOW-LVL MOISTURE FROM ONSHORE FLOW AND RAD CONDITIONS.

TEMPS...SHAVE 1 TO 3 DEGREES FROM TODAYS MAXES TO FCST HIGHS FOR THU...
ONSHORE FLOW RELAXES A BIT FOR FRI THERE4 WULD OPT TO INCREASE
MAXES 1-3 DEGREES. OVRNITE LOWS BOTH NITES 60-65. CULD PSBLY ONLY
DROP TO THE MID 60S ALNG THE IMMEDIATE CST DUE TO MARITIME INFLUENCE.

CWF...LUKS AS THO AN EAST WIND AT 10 KT AT NITE...10-15 KT DURG THE
DAY CULD WORK FOR THE ILM CWA THRUOUT THE PERIOD. DEPENDING THE TIMING
OF THE TROF ON FRI...CULD WORD E BECOMING VRBL. CULD WORD SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS THU NITE AND FRI DUE TO INCREASED EASTRLY WND FETCH LENGTH.

ILM UB 062/084 063/08H7 064 000
FLO UB 063/087 064/089 063 000

DCH