845 
FPUS03 KMLB 211801
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 1997

WELL BE WATCHING THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING WEST ACROSS THE BAHAMAS.
PRESENT FORECASTS HAVE THE WAVE MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA TOMORROW
AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST GULF THEREAFTER. THE NGM TRIES TO BRING A SLUG
OF DRIER AIR ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA NORTH OF THE WAVE...BUT THE WAVE
IS MORE LIKELY TO REINFORCE DEEP MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION...SO I
PREFER THE WETTER AVN/ETA SOLUTIONS. THE SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SEA BREEZE TO MAKE GREATEST
INLAND PROGRESS THERE...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW ELSEWHERE...WHICH WILL
ALLOW EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO DRIFT INLAND. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
TOMORROW (LIKELY POPS) ACROSS SOUTHERN AND INTERIOR COUNTIES. WITH
THE WAVE IN THE GULF AND THE SURFACE TO 700 MB RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL FL ON WED...EXPECT TO RETURN TO DIURNAL PATTERN
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG COAST DURING THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AND SHIFTING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. THE ETA/AVN SUGGEST A SURGE OF DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL ROTATE AROUND MEAN SW ATLANTIC RIDGE AND APPROACH ON
WEDNESDAY...SO WELL WATCH TO SEE HOW THIS SITUATION EVOLVES.

PETERSEN