699 
FPUS65 KTUS 100356
AFDTUS

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
900 PM MST SUN FEB 9 1997

SHRTWV RDG TO PASS OVR SRN AZ TNGT. SOME WISPS OF CI TO MOV OVHD
...BUT MN CI SHIELD TO HOLD OFF TIL MON AS RDG MOVS E OF CWA.   

00Z MODEL GUID CONTS TREND OF A MORE DYNAMIC WX SCENARIO FOR SE
AZ TUE. 00Z ETA FCSTS UPR LOW OFF NRN CA CST TO MOV SSE TO NR SAN
BY TUE MRNG. THIS TRACK SUPPORTED BY CURRENT WV IMAGERY. ALSO
FURTHER W TRAJECTORY OF SYS KEEPS CENTER OVR WATER NEXT 36 HRS.
THIS SHOULD PREVENT THE SYS FM LOSING MOST OF ITS MSTR BY THE
TIME IT GETS TO OUR LATITUDE. 

NEW FRH DATA AND RH PROGS RATHER DRY TUE AFTN AS UPR LOW MOVS
INLAND ALNG THE MEX BRDR. THIS DUE TO DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED
INTO SYS AS SEEN ON PRECIP WATER IMAGERY. CURRENT TIMING OF LOW
WOULD PUT INSTABILITY ASSCD WITH CD POOL ALF OVR FCST AREA DURG
MAX AFTN HEATG TUE. NGM IS SLGTLY STGR WITH SYS NEXT 48 HRS AND
MOVS LOW CNTR DIRECTLY OVR CWA BY 00Z WED. BOTTOM LINE...CHC
SHRA/TSRA 4TH PD LOOKS LIKE A GOOD FCST. NO UPDTS PLANNED. TUS
0013. OKULSKI  

TUS...NONE