722 
FPUS03 KMLB 141831
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
115 PM EST SAT DEC 14 1996

FORECAST PRETTY STRAIGHTFORWARD NEXT TWO DAYS. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER..WITH SLOWLY INCREASING EASTERLY COMPONENT AS SURFACE
HIGH PRSSURE BUILDS ACROSS EASTERN U.S. NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION TO
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS...WHICH NOSES DOWN EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIAN CHAIN. FEEL THAT THIS WILL KEEP AGEOSTROPHIC COMPONENT TO
FLOW OVER ECFL...THUS PREVENTING IT FROM VEERING MUCH BEYOND NE UNTIL
AFTER H48.

ALTHOUGH AIR MASS IS QUITE DRY...AS EVIDENCED BY BOTH 12Z CAP/JAX
SOUNDINGS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
LOCAL MARINE MODIFICATION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SHALLOW LAYER OF
MOISTURE WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A LITTLE STRATO-CU ALONG THE
COAST. ADDITIONALLY...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS STRATO-CU OUT OVER
THE GULF STREAM...WHICH WILL TRY TO CREEP MORE TOWARDS SHORE AS FLOW
VEERS. AREAS FROM VRB/FPR SOUTH HAVE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING SOME OF
THIS OVERNIGHT.

FAN/FWC GUIDANCE DELAYED...HOWEVER 00Z TEMP NUMBERS SHOWED FAN WITH
ITS USUAL CHILLY BIAS.


CRISTALDI