594 
FPUS3 KAMA 250838
AFDAMA

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
240 AM CST MON NOV 25 1996

CLR SKIES ATTM ACRS THE PNHDLS AND COLD SFC RDG KEEPING WNDS LGT FM
THE N AND NW.  QUASI-STNRY FNTL BNDRY LOCATED ACRS EXTRM ERN CO SWD
INTO EXTRM ERN NM...BTWN CAO AND DHT ATTM.  SFC RDG FCSTD TO SLIDE
EWD INTO OK TDA WHICH WL ALLOW FOR VRBL WNDS AROUND 5 TO 15 KTS AND
PSBLY ALLOW QUASI-SNTRY FNTL BNDRY TO MOV EWD INTO THE WRN PNHDLS.
PREV FCST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH WNDS TDA.  AFT LOOKING AT 00Z GRIDDED
DATA...MODELS FCSTG REINFORCING SURGE OF MODIFIED CP AIR TO
BACKDOOR INTO THE PNHDLS BY 12Z TUE.  ETA/AVN MUCH DRIER THAN THE
NGM...KEEPING THE BULK OF THE MSTR N OF THE PNHDLS AND THE CD AIR E
OF THE PNHDLS.  HWVR...MODELS SHOWING UPSLP FLOW ACRS THE PNHDLS
BHND THE CDFNT...NE TO E WND...TUE INTO TUE NGT/WED MRNG.  THIS
SHOULD ALLOW LOW-LVL MSTR AND CLDS TO ADVCT INTO THE PNHDLS IN THE
CD AIR.  SHRTWV TROF AND ASSOCD VORT MAX APCH THE PNHDLS TUE NGT
INTO WED MRNG.  MODELS ALSO FCSTG 80 TO 90 KT JET STREAK ACRS THE
PNHDLS TUE NGT INTO WED MRNG ALG WITH BEST UVV/S.  850 MB TEMPS
FCSTD TO BE BLO 0 DEG C ACRS ALL THE PNHDLS BY 12Z WED WITH THKNS
VALUES BTWN 538 AND 543 BY 12Z WED.  WL MENTION INCRG CLDS TNGT AND
CLDY SKIES TUE INTO WED MRNG AND WL KEEP SLGT CHC OF SNW TUE NGT
INTO WED MRNG.

ONCE SHRTWV TROF PUSHES EWD AWAY FM THE PNHDLS WED...SUBSIDENCE
SHOULD PREVAIL AND ALLOW FOR CLRG SKIES BY WED AFTN.  FOR
TEMPS...ERY ETA FCST SNDG FOR AMA SHOWED MAX TEMP 8 TO 9 DEG C TDA
AND A MIN TEMP OF ABT -5 TO -6 DEG C.  MAX TEMP TUE WAS AROUND 4 TO
5 DEG C.  FOR DHT...FCST SNDG SHOWED MAX TEMP TDA AROUND 9 DEG C AND
A MIN TEMP TUE AROUND -3 TO -4 DEG C.  MAX TEMP TUE WAS AROUND 3 TO
4 DEG C.  IF THE QUASI-STNRY FNTL BNDRY SLIPS EWD PAST DHT...TEMPS
IN THE WRN PNHDLS COULD WARM SIGNIFICANTLY TDA.  IF IT RMNS OVR THE
ERN PLNS OF NM...TEMPS MAY NOT BE AS WARM AS FCSTD.  THE ERN PNHDLS
SHOULD STAY COOLER BEING CLOSER TO THE COLD SFC RDG.  WL STAY CLOSE
TO PREV FCST BUT STILL CONT TO UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE.

IN THE EXTENDED FCST...PREV MRF RUN FCSTG LGWV TROF MOVG EWD ACRS
THE WRN STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND APCHG THE PNHDLS BY THE
WEEKEND.  PAC CDFNT ALSO FCSTD TO MOV ACRS THE INTRMTRGN THU WITH
SFC TROF ALG THE LEE OF THE RCKYS.  IF ENOUGH LOW-LVL MSTR PRESENT
WITH THE UPR LVL TROF AND PAC CDFNT...PNHDLS MAY SEE SOME PRECIP IN
TIME FOR THE WEEKEND.  WL WAIT TO SEE TNGT/S RUN OF THE MRF BFR
DECIDING IF PRECIP NEEDS TO BE ADDED FOR FRI.  OTRW...NO CHGS
PLANNED.

PRELIM CCF:
AMA 049/023 041/020 043  00-
DHT 052/026 041/017 042  00-

.AMA...
TX...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SCHNEIDER