000 
TTAA00 KHAT 210613
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
214 AM EDT SUN JUL 21 1996

ZFP: SUGGESTIONS WUD BE INCLUDE CARTERET/ONSLOW ZONES IN THE CNTRL CSTL
GROUPING & INDICATE MSTLY CDY FOR MON INSTEAD OF PTLY CDY. TEMPS ALL
THE WAY THRU AS WELL AS CHCY POPS 2ND-3RD PDS FINE. WE MAY WANT TO
INCRS POPS IN MANY AREAS LATE TNGT & MON....& LEAST TO GUD CHC BY MON.

CWF: LGT VRBL WNDS ALG WK SFC RDG AXIS FROM CHO-HSE SHUD BCM MAINLY E
THEN SE THIS AFTN @ SPDS OF 15 KT OR LESS. FLO BECMG S TNGT & SW ON THE
SRN WTRS MON. W/ RESPECT TO THE MRP GDNC...WILL INDICATE FLO INCRNG MON
AFTN BUT DUE TO FAST TIMING OF APPROACHING SHRT WV VIA THE NGM...WILL
NOT INDICATE PSBL SCA MON. THINK BEST PLAN IS TO BUMP WNDS UP A LTL &
LET DAY SHFT PERUSE ADDTL GDNC B4 GOING OUT ON A LIMB.

DISC: WK LOW PRES AREA ALG STALLED FRNTL BNDRY NR MEB CREATING A RATHER
INTERESTING BULGE IN SFC DW PTS ACRS THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING AS
RDU @ 69 & GSO @ 57. UNSTBL AIR ALSO HAS ADVCTD IN THE SANDHILLS PER
ADAP & LONE SHRA OVR JOHNSTONE CNTY. THE ETA MDL OUTPUT ON PC-GRIDDS
PICKED UP ON THIS SMC @ 06Z & ACTUALLY SHOWS INCRNG SMC TWD 12Z ACRS
WRN & SRN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. CERTAINLY MHX CWA WILL BE FLIRTING W/
THIS UNSTBL AIR MASS TDA/TNGT BUT GDNC CONTS TO SHOW MORE STBL AIR
RESIDING ALG THE CNTRL CST NWD & THE BEST THETA-E PARKED OVR S CAROLINA.
MON SEEMS TO BE SHAPING UP UNSETTLED AS A SIGNIFICANT SHRT WV ROLLS
INTO THE SRN MID ATLC REGION. THE ETA IS STRONGER W/ THIS DISTURBANCE
BUT DOES NOT RING-OUT AS MUCH QPF AS THE NGM...WHICH HAS A POCKET OF
NR 2.5" PW SETTING OVR ERN NC MON AFTN. TIMING-WISE...SOMEWHERE BTWN
THE AVN & ETA SEEMS REASONABLE WHICH WUD STILL BRING RA & CNVTN INTO
THE AREA MON AFTN ON THE HEELS OF DECENT 700 MB VVEL & VRY IMPRESSIVE
ISENTROPIC LIFTING FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

.MHX...NONE.

RVT