000 
FPUS3 KFSD 012150
SFDFSD

SOUTH DAKOTA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
350 PM CST FRI MAR 1 1996

...FSD...
PCGRIDDS 300 MB DIV OVR SD 18 HRS. LEFT FRONT QUAD OF JTSTR SPD MAX MOVS
ACROSS SD TNGT. BY 12Z STG CONV INDICATED AT 300 MB. ANOTHER SPD MAX
AT 300 MOVS OVR SD SAT NGT. JTSTM AND UPR LVL FLO MOVG TWD ZONAL FLO BY
48 HRS INDICATING WARM AIR ADVECTION. PCGRIDS INDICATES MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE ON RFC AT 36 HRS. MODELS ALSO INDICATE SFC SYS DVLPG OVR
ERN SD/WRN WY BY 48 HRS. THIS SUPPORTS A HIGHER POP THAN INDICATED BY
NGM MOS.  

P0W SHOWS CLDS BRKG UP OVR S CNTRL CAN THIS AFTN. UPR LVL FLO WOULD
ADVECT THIS INTO SD LATER TNGT. AS INDICATED ABV PCGRIDDS SUPPORTS THIS
FOR LATER TNGT.  

...RAP...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA

SNW CONTG OVR NRN BLK HLS AND INTO PLNS...THO HIGHEST DBZ HAS SHIFTED
EWD TO N OF RAP FOR THE TIME BEING.  BAND ASSOC W/ VORT MAX SWINGING
SWD W/ JET.  STILL SOM S- ACRS WRN ND AND ERN MT.  BOTH SFC WNDS AT
UNR AND VAD WNDS ARE DCRSG...SO WND ADVRY CAN XPIR.

AM CONCERNED ABT SNW OVRNITE IN THE NRN BLK HLS W/ VERT VEL INCRSG BY
12Z AND UPSLOP FLOW.  MDLS ALSO KEEP MSTR HIGH THRU MRNG...WHICH LOOKS
GOOD CONSIDERING MSTR FLOW ON STLT.

LOWS IN THE MID TEENS TONITE LOOKS GOOD FOR RAP...A FEW DEG COOLER IN
NW AND HILLS.  DON`T SEE HOW WE WL REACH THE MID 30S SAT W/ CLDY SKIES
AND UPSLOP FLOW.

ANDERSON

...ABR...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST SD

88D CONT TO INDICATE PATHCY S-,S-- OVER NC...NE SD AND THIS SHOULD
GRADUALLY COME TO AN END THIS EVE AS DECREASING CLOUDS PER MICROSWIS
SPREAD INTO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL PARTS OF STATE FM THE
NORTH. UPSTREAM SYS DROPPING DOWN INTO MN TNT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE EFFECT
ON SD EXCEPT FOR PERHAPS TO BACKDOOR SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE NE 1/3.
IT SHOULD ALSO KEEP OR PUSH MAIN BARACLINIC ZONE WEST INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT COULD RESIDE FOR A AWHILE. AT THIS POINT I WOULDNT
BE TOO SURPRISED IF MOS IS UNDERESTIMATING THIS SURGE OF COOLER AIR.
SUSPECT HIGHS WILL BE SOME 5 TO 10 DEGREES COLDER THAN
TDYS...ESPECIALLY NE.  AS FOR TNTS LOWS DONT HAVE MUCH REASON TO GO
AGAINST THE NUMBERS.  A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE FWC/FAN SHOULD WORK
FINE.

TDK

.FSD...WND ADVY TIL 9 PM TNGT. WRN SD.