000 
FPUS03 KBGM 061907
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
200 PM EST TUE FEB 6 1996

RELATIVELY QUIET WX PTRN WILL CONTINUE THRU THE FCST PD...WITH JUST A
WEAK SHRT WV TO PASS THRU LATE IN THE PD. 

PTLY CLDY SKIES AND LGT WINDS EARLY TNGT WILL ALLOW THE TEMPS TO DROP
OFF...THEN XPCT TEMPS TO RISE BEFORE DAYBREAK AS CLDS AND SLY WIND
PICKS UP. DON/T THINK TEMSP WILL AHVVE A CHANCE TO RCH ZERO BEFORE THE
WIND COMES UP...SO WILL ADJUST TEMSP UP ACDGLY.

TMRW...SHRT WV APCHS AND CLDS THKN. REALLY DON/T XPCT ANY PCPN BEFORE
DARK...EVEN USING THE FASTER NGM TIMING. HWWVR...WITH HI CHANCE POPS
ALREADY IN THE FCST...WILL SIMPLY SCALE BACK POPS TO THE LOW CHANCE
CATEGORY. 

MAIN ENERGY FROM THE SYSTEM STAYS WELL NORTH UNDER THE UA LOW...BUT A
SCNDRY VORT MAX APCHS ON THU AS THE BASE OF THE TROF SWINGS THRU. I/M
NOT AT ALL IMPRESSED WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE SYSTEM...BUT IT SEEMS TO
HAVE MANAGED TO IMPORT SOME GULF MOISTURE BY THE 4TH PD. WK LIFT AHD OF
THE TROF IN THE MID LVLS MAY SQUEEZE OUT SOME SNOW...SO WILL GO WITH
THE MOS GUID FOR NOW AND INCRS THE POPS TO LIKELY FOR THE FINAL 2 PDS.
ON THU...SOME MIXED PCPN PSBL AS WARMER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER IN.
HWVR...GRIDDED DATA INDICATES THE WAA IS PRETTY MUCH OVER BY THEN...AND
ALL TEMPS AT OR BLO FRZG. SO...WILL NOT GET TO FANCY IN THE 4TH
PD.

LAKE SNOW OUTLOOK
7 PM TUE TO 7 AM WED...N
7 AM WED TO 7 PM WED...N
7 PM WED TO 7 AM THU...N

MORFORD