000 
FXUS4 KWBC 241913
QPFPFD

QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL PREDICTION
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER...NWS...WASHINGTON DC
145 PM EST WED JAN 24 1996

UPDATE QPF DISCUSSION VALID JAN 25/1200 UTC THRU JAN 26/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AFOS GRAPHIC 98Q

WHILE EAST COAST UPPER TROF MOVES OUT OF THE PICTURE..MODELS ALL DVLP
ANOTHER STRONG UPPER TROF OVER THE PLAINS BY 48 HOURS AS JET DIGS SEWD
FROM THE PAC NW.  RECENT TRENDS HAVE FAVORED A SLIGHTLY SHARPER TROF
BUT WE DON'T EXPECT TO SEE MUCH FURTHER SHARPENING IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS
GIVEN THE UPSTREAM PATTERN WHICH DOESN'T SHOW ANY MAJOR AMPLIFICATION
OF THE UPPER RIDGE.  HOWEVER MODELS STILL DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON HOW FAR
SOUTH THE ASSOCD VORT MAX DIGS BY 48 HOURS THRU THE PLAINS WITH THE
ETA REMAINING THE FURTHEST SOUTH OF ALL THE MODELS.  WORKSTATION RUN
OF THE AVN..WHICH IS INTERPOLATED TO A 1 DEG BY 1 DEG GRID..IS IN
CLOSER AGREEMENT TO THE ETA THAN THE COARSER AFOS/PAPER VERSIONS..BUT
STILL SLIGHTLY FURTHER N.  NGM PROBABLY IS TOO FAR N WHICH IS A
TYPICAL BIAS WITH SYSTEMS DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES..THUS HAVE
FOLLOWED THE MORE SRN AVN/ETA SOLNS.

MAIN UPPER TROF WILL BE PRECEEDED BY A WEAKER SHEARING SYSTEM WHICH
WILL SPREAD LIGHT TO MDT SNOWS NEWD FROM IA INTO THE SRN GT LAKES
REGION.  FAST MOVEMENT AND LIMITED MSTR WILL KEEP MOST LIQUID
EQUIVALENT AMOUNTS UNDER .50 INCH.  UPPER JET DYNAMICS SHOULD BEGIN TO
PRODUCE SOME SNOW IN THE COLD AIR NORTH OF THE NEXT VORT MAX OVER NRN
OK/SE KS THU NIGHT..WHILE SURFACE LOW DVLPS TOWARD SRN AR.  MODEL PW
FCSTS SHOW A RAPID SURGE OF MSTR LATE IN THE PD OVER THE WRN AND CNTL
GULF COAST REGION AS 85H INFLOW OFF THE GULF INCREASES TO OVER 50KTS.
AT THE SAME TIME LIS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE TO
PRODUCE A RAPIDLY EXPANDING AREA OF FRONTAL CONVECTION FROM E TX EWD
INTO AR/NRN LA/NW MS THU NIGHT INTO FRI MRNG WITH THE MODELS LIKELY
UNDERDONE WITH PCPN AMOUNTS.  ALTHO HEAVIEST RAINS WILL OCCUR AFTER
12Z FRI RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF .50 TO 1 INCH COULD OCCUR BY FRI MRNG.

UPPER FLOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM THE CURRENT WLYS TO A
MORE NW FLOW REGIME.  LINGERING AREAS OF OROGRAPHIC SNOWS ARE EXPECTED
TO THE NORTH OF THE UPPER JET ACROSS THE MTNS OF OREGON..ESPECIALLY
THE CASCADES INTO THE CNTL MTNS OF ID..WASATCH RANGE OF UT..AND MTNS
OF SW CO.

SULLIVAN/FORECAST OPERATIONS BRANCH

24HR QP VT 26/12Z
 0.25 376881 368876 345885 319914 306940 302958 306959 332943 351925
      371903 375890 376881
 0.25 384935 379938 370953 360969 356979 360982 374967 382953 386944
      387939 384935
 0.25 388093 389089 386086 382078 379075 374079 376087 379090 379093
      377098 383099 385097 388093
 0.25 424101 421099 405105 394113 386116 385123 398118 408113 411113
      417111 421109 424101
 0.25 450157 449154 445153 440152 435150 431151 434156 439159 444161
      447161 449160 450157
 0.25 452234 450230 450230 442231 441231 434231 428234 428237 432238
      445238 450237 452234
 0.25 453209 446207 436210 422220 418222 419226 423226 433219 441216
      449216 450215 455213 453209
 0.25 456831 455820 448823 427884 421918 421931 425936 442897 454846
      456831
 0.50 362895 356893 342901 321925 314940 313947 325940 340927 355914
      360906 363899 362895
 1.00 347911 341914 335922 334928 342920 345917 347914 347911