000 
FPUS03 KMHX 171822
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT NC
122 PM EST WED JAN 17 1996

CSTL TRF REMAINS OFFSHORE WITH RADAR AND SATL SHOWING SCT SHWRS REMAINING
MAINLY OVER WTR. MAY NEED SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG CST OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THINK
PRECIP WL BE VRY LIMITED. AS HIGH PULLS SLOWLY OFFSHORE EXPECT WINDS TO
BECOME MORE E/SE THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDESPREAD FOG DEVLOPING
AGAIN TONIGHT HOWEVER SE FLOW NOT AS FAVORABLE AS NE FLOW SO HOPEFULLY
FOG WONT BE AS WIDESPREAD OR DENSE AS LAST NIGHT. THUR SHLD BE NICE DAY
AS SERLY FLOW INCREASES OVER AREA WITH VERY MILD TEMPS. SHLDNT BE MUCH
PRECIP AS BEST LIFT AND MOISTURE STILL TO W. SHLD GET QUITE INTERESTING
THU NIGHT INTO FRI AS VRY IMPRSIVE SYTEM OUT W MVS E. ALTHOUGH MAIN SFC
LOW WL TRCK NE ACRS GRT LKS VRY IMPRESSIVE UPPR LVL ENERGY WILL CONT
ALONG BASE OF TROF. THINK NGM MAY HAVE RIGHT IDEA WITH POSSIBLE WV
DEVLOPING OVER SE U.S. FRI WITH STRG PVA AND UPR DIFL. DEEP SRLY FLOW
EXPECTED WITH LOTS OF WARM MOIST AIR OVER REGION. LOW LVL JET OF 50+
KTS COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND STRG VVEL COULD LEAD TO SOME SVR
TSTMS LATE THUR NIGHT INTO FRI...SHLD ALSO SEE HEAVY RAIN WITH VERY GOOD
THETA-E RIDGE OVER RGN.
.
CWF: LEANING TOWARD SCA EXPECTED LATE THUR WITH POSS GALE ON FRI.
ALL MDLS SHOWS LOW LVL JET WILL BE MOVING E ACRS AREA THU NIGHT INTO
FRI. VRY COLD NEAR SHORE WATERS MAY TEND TO KEEP BEST WINDS ALOFT
HOWEVER THINK SOME WL MIX DOWN ESPECIALLY AS GO FRTHR OFFSHORE. MAY
BE A BIT EARLY MENTIONING GALE BUT WITH 50+ KTS EXPECTED AT 850
AND GUID SHOWING 30+ KTS FOR FRI FEEL FAIRLY CONFIDENT WINDS SHLD
REACH 30-35 KT RANGE. WL MENTION WDLY SCTTRD SHOWERS TONIGHT...SCT
SHOWERS THU. SHOWERS LIKELY WITH POSS TSTMS THU NIGHT INTO FRI.

.MHX...NONE.

FREDERICK