000 
FPUS03 KBGM 270248 AMD
AFDBGM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
945 PM EST TUE DEC 26 1995

LK ONTARIO SNOW MACHINE IS POOPING OUT A LITTLE THIS EVENING. THIS IS
PROBABLY MOSTLY DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADV
ROTATING DOWN FROM NORTHEAST (NO...THATS NOT A TYPO...I DID SAY WWA
FROM THE NE.)  THERE WAS A NUMBER OF 3-6" REPORTS ACROSS ONONDAGA/
MADISON COUNTIES DURING THE DAY...BUT WHATS LEFT IS 1" OR LESS TYPE
STUFF.  THEREFORE WILL DROP ALL WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES.  TEMPS ALREADY
IN THE LOW TO MID TEES SO WILL DROP TONIGHTS MINS A LITTLE AS WELL.

AS FOR WHATS ROTATING AROUND ATLANTIC UPPER LOW...QG FORCING QUITE
IMPRESSIVE FOR A SYSTEM OF THIS ORIGIN...PARTICULARLY 850-500 DIV-Q
AND 700 MB FGEN.  VEERING WIND PROFILE FROM NNW TO E ALSO INDICATIVE
OF WAA...EVEN IF A-TYPICALLY ORIENTED.  S/W ROTATING AROUND ALSO SEEMS
TO HAVE GOOD DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.  WITH NNW FLOW...LAKES WILL ALSO HELP
ENHANCE SYNOPTIC FORCING.

EXPECT A 6-8 HOUR PERIOD OF STEADY LIGHT SNOW MOST OF BGM CWA...
LIKELY PRODUCING 1-3" ACCUMS. STEADIER SNOW SHOULD START MOHAWK VLY
ARND 10Z...TWIN TIERS ARND 12Z...AVP ARND 14Z.  WILL UP WED POPS TO
LIKELY WED ALL ZONES.

LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHAT HAPPENS WED NIGHT AND THURS. ALL MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...SO IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO SET
STUFF OFF...ESPECIALLY IF ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONES GET LEFT
BEHIND AS IS HINTED ON NGM (WE HAD A FEW SURPRISES LIKE THIS LAST
YEAR). MODELS DO SHOW SOME SHEAR...NOT SURE I TOTALLY BUY INTO THIS.
MODELS ALSO SHOW CAPPING INVERSION...BUT IT IS A THERMAL INVERSION
ONLY...MOIST (ACTUALLY NEARLY SATURATED) BOTH ABOVE AND
BELOW THE CAP. NNW FLOW COULD GENERATE SOME FINGER LAKE BANDS.
SHOULD BE INTERESTING...HOW THIS EVOLVES COULD TELL US SOMETHING ABOUT
THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE AND INTERACTION OF THE CAPPING INVERSION WITH
THE MOISTURE PROFILE.

...UPDATED...
LATEST RAMSDIS FOG PRODUCTS ALREADY INDICATING THAT MOISTURE
ROTATING DOWN FROM ADIRONDACKS IS STARTING TO RE-ENVIGORATE
LK ONTARIO SHORE PARALLEL BAND FROM ROC TO OSWEGO. 1-3" OVERNIGHT
ONONDAGA/MADISON/ONEIDA CTYSLOOKS GOOD WITH ANOTHER 1-2" WED.

INTERESTING POINT IN BUF SFD REGARDING TEMP DIFFERENTIAL.  AGREE ITS
A CONCERN...HOWEVER BELIEVE INSTAB ENOUGH IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THE
MAIN REASON I BRING THIS UP IS TO POINT OUT THAT OUR BEST SOURCE OF
GREAT LAKES WATER TEMP DATA...THE GLERL SATELLITE ANALYSIS...IS NOT
AVAILABLE DUE TO THE FURLOUGHS/BUDGET SITUATION. I HOPE CONGRESS IS
ENJOYING THIER HOLIDAY RECESS!

JUST IN...SPOTTER IN CLAY - ONONDAGA COUNTY HAS 1" SNOW IN LAST HOUR. 

.BGM...NONE.

LAKE SNOW OUTLOOK
10 PM TUE TO 7 AM WED...Y...WEAK MULTI-BAND ACTIVITY WILL BECOME MORE
                            LAKE ENHANCE SYNOPTIC TOWARD MORNING
7 AM WED TO 7 PM...N...LAKE ENHANCED SYNOPTIC SNOW (MOSTLY SYNOPTIC)
7 PM WED TO 7 AM THU...Y...DISORGANIZED MULTIBAND.  POSSIBLE FINGER
                           LAKE BANDS.

WALDSTREICHER