000 
FPUS03 KBGM 191452
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
945 AM EST TUE DEC 19 1995

AM VERY CNCRND ABOUT THE FCST. H8 FNT FRMG WELL SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA...WITH SNOW ON THE RADAR MAKING LTL PROGRESS NWRD. NGM...WHICH
TENDS TO KEEP THE SFC LOW TO FAR WEST IN THE COLD AIR...MOVES THE DVLPG
LOW RAPIDLY NORTH AND EAST LTR TODAY AND EARLY WED. WITH H7 AND H5 LOWS
NEARLY OVER BGM...FLOW ALOFT MAY BE WEAK ENUF TO KEEP H8 AND SFC LOW
MVMT UNCERTAIN. HWVR...CRNT TRENDS DON/T LOOK GOOD FOR HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE FCST AREA.

WILL LEAVE THIS FCST AS IS...AND AWAIT 12Z DATA. HWVR...IF MODEL TREND
OF THIS AND LAST FEW STORMS CONTINUE...LATEST RUN WILL AGAIN MOVE BEST
DYNAMICS AND SFC LOW FURTHER EAST. WE MAY END UP DROPPING THE
WRANING...RIGHT ABOUT THE TIME THE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MVES IN ON
WED...AND REALLY CAUSES THE FIRST PRBLM OF THE STORM.

ZNS ALREADY SENT.

.BGM...WINTER STM WRNG INTO WED FOR PA ZNS 38-40/43/44/47/48.
       WINTER STM WRNG THIS AFTN THRU WED FOR NY ZNS 44-46/55-57/62.

LAKE SNOW OUTLOOK
11 AM TUE TO 7 PM TUE...N...SYNOPTIC SNOW.
7 PM TUE TO 7 AM WED...N...SYNOPTIC SNOW.
7 AM WED TO 7 PM WED...Y...AS SFC LO SLOWLY PULLS AWAY...NW FLOW OF COLD
     AIR (-15 AT 85H) WILL CROSS LK ONT.  LOOKS LIKE MORE OF A
     MULTI-BAND EVENT INITIALLY.

JUREWICZ