000 
FPUS62 KJAX 190041
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
730 PM EST MON DEC 18 1995

LOW OVR LOW MISS VALLEY WILL TRACK QUICKLY INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND BOTH RADAR AND SAT IMAGE INDICATE SQUALL LINE FORMING...SAT IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS GULF CONVECTION AND MAY INDICATE FASTER DESTABILIZATION.
850 MBS HAS LOTS OF MOISTURE A STRONG LLJ PUNCHING INTO PANHANDLE
...LOW LVL CONVERGENCE ALONG GULF COAST AND ALONG FL/GA BORDER FROM THE
WEDGE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW  FOCUS ACTIVITY ALONG BORDER FOR OUR CWA.
EXPECT ROUND ONE TO BE OVER BY MORNING HRS.  12Z ETA SHOWED VORT MAX
IN GULF S OF TLH AND SEEMS TO HANDLE THE LARGE SCALE BUT SIGNALS THERE
FOR SQUALL LINE.   AXIS FROM TLH TO SAV WITH SOUTHERN LIMIT GNV TO JAX.
BOTTOM LINE EXPECT TO SEE SHWR/TSTMS INCREASE THROUGH TONIGHT OVER CWA
WITH TEMPS EXPECTED ALONG GUIDANCE WHILE POPS NEED TO BE RAISED.

EXPECT FOG ALONG COAST TO CONTNIUE OVER GEORGIA CSTL WATERS THRU AM
HRS AND WILL AFFECT EXTREME NE FL AS WELL.

SSI TU 060/068 052/057 07660
SECOND PERIOD  EXPECT SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN AM
SOMETIME AFTER 12Z WHEN SECOND JET IMPULSE RUNS THROUGH AREA.  NIGHT
RAINS MAY ADD MOISTURE TO MORNING PROBLEM AND SEVERE WEAX LIKELY TO
ENTER NORHTERN CWA ALONG FL/GA BORDER.
SURE WISH I HAD CURRENT MODELS TO LOOK AT BESIDES RUC.

SSI TB 057/068 048/055 13883
JAX TU 064/074 051/062 13840
GNV TU 065/075 050/060 13840

WELSH