000 
FPUS03 KMHX 080548
AFDMHX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT NC
145 AM EDT SUN OCT 8 1995

FCST APRS TO BE NOT AS CLR CUT AS ERLR THOUGHT. WK CD FRNT CRNTLY HRD
TO LOCATE ON SFC ANLYS BUT BST DWPT DIFFS OVR THE PIED ATTM WHICH LNS UP
WL WITH ADAP SSW AND STAB FLDS. WK TROF NR THE CST SEEN IN WLY TRAJ DVLPG
PER CSTL VADS. THETA-E ANLYS HAS MAX FARTHR OFFSHR TNGT SO ANY OCEAN TYPE
SHWRS SHUD GET ADVCTD E OF THE CST GIVEN WLY COMP.

NEW MDL RUNS TAKING ON A NEW FLAVOR TNGT WITH TYPICAL SCENARIO OF CRNT CD
FRNT MOVG TO THE CST THIS MORN AND THEN STALLING. PLUME OF TRPCL MSTR ON
VAPOR LOOP LKLY TO PUSH E TDY BUT THEN ATTEMPT TO WRK WWD MON INTO TUE AS
WK WV ACRS FL KPS 85H FLW S/SE. APRS ETA A BIT OVRDN ALTHO INVERTED TROF
OFFSHR CUD PRODUCE GUD SHWR CVRG CST AS NR SFC FLW BCMS A BIT MR ELY BY
MON EVE. LUKS LK LW POPS SE CST LT TNGT/MON WRKG INTO THE CNTRL CST AND
OTR BNKS MON/MON NGT. CONT PC TDY WITH SOME AC/CU ARND BUT LWR DWPTS SHUD
PRECLUDE ANY POPS. ENUF SUN FOR ABT 80 TDA...ARND 60 TNGT AND 75-80 MON.

CWF...WNDS TO GRDLY SHFT TO N AND NE TDY AND CONT INTO MON. WL BUMP SPDS
UP A BIT MON PER MRP GUID AS BLYR PROGS GNRLY A BIT LW IN CAA OVR WRM WTR
BUT STILL BLO SCA. OTRW...WL MAINTAIN SPLIT FOR SLGTLY HIER SEAS N
AND ADJUST PRECIP A BIT ESPCLY SRN PTN.

.MHX...NONE.

JH