000 
FPUS03 KMRX 200719
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KNOXVILLE/TRI-CITIES TN
318 AM EDT THU JUL 20 1995

20/00Z MODEL RUNS VERY SIMILIAR TO PREVIOUS RUN OVERALL WITH MAIN
FEATURES. DECENT SFC-850 MOISTURE NOTED ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
MRNG S OF THE STNRY FRONT AND THIS MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY ADVECT
INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY THU NIGHT-FRI AS SFC-850 FLOW BECOMES
SW. ALL MODELS SEEMED TO DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE WESTERLY
UPPER FLOW TO AFFECT THE AREA BY LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI. THERE WAS
NOT MUCH SFC DEVELOPMENT NOTED AND THE APCHG COLD FRONT SEEMS TO LACK
MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (NMC PROGS SHOW IT DISPTG OR JUST EVOLVING
INTO A SFC TROF TO OUR W DURING THE DAY FRI). STILL...INCRSG MOISTURE
AND INSTBY ON FRI IN COMBO WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE SUGGEST SOME SCTRD
CONVECTION...IN LINE WITH CURRENT PACKAGE AND THE AVN MOS...PERHAPS
FWC LIKELY POPS ARE TOO HIGH? FOR TODAY...CONTEMPLATED LO POPS FOR
MTNS WHERE BOTH ETA/NGM GRIDDED DATA SHOWED WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
THIS AFTN...BUT 20/00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED STG CAP IN PLACE AND GRIDDED
DATA SUGGESTS SLIGHT WARMING AT 700 MBS BY 24 HRS. ALSO ANY UPSLOPE
COMPONENT SEEMS TO BE GONE BY 21/00Z AS LO LVL WINDS SHIFT TO MORE
SOUTHERLY. MOS TEMPS LOOKED OKAY...A LITTLE WARMER MAXES (HOTTER IF
YOU LIKE) TODAY THEN A NOTCH LOWER FRI. WILL MAKE A MINOR CHANGE TO
GRAPHIC ZFM AND SEND YOU THE CCFS FOR EACH GROUP SHORTLY.  #10

TG

FOR TODAY