000 
FPUS03 KILM 200554
AFDILM
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
145 AM EDT THU JUL 20 1995

RAH: TSTMS LUK SLIM TDY...BUT WL GO W/20% DUE TO PSBL ACTN INLAND/PSBL 
DVLG C BREEZ. TEMPS OF 90-95 LUK OK. MGT BE A BIT COOLER ALG THE CST 
DUE TO C BREEZ. CWF...WUNDR IF WNDS WL GO TO S BY AFTN HRS?. SE WNDS MGT 
BE BTR. WNDS WL BE 10 KTS OR LESS.  

CAE: LIKE THE PRVS FCST AS IS. WL GO ALG W/20% POP FOR AFTN TSTMS EVN 
THO NVA BLDS OVR RGN. CWF...LIKE UR SE WNDS FOR TDY. WNDS 10 KTS OR 
LESS.

DSCN: THGS VERY...VERY QUIET THIS MRNG. TEMPS AVGNG IN THE MID TO UPPER 
70S. SKY CONDS SHWD SCTD CLDS. SAT PIX SHWG CLDS DISSIPATG W/88D 
INDICATG JUST A FEW SPRITZS OVR THE H2OS & TO NE. 

THGS SHUD BE PRETTY QUIET TDY AS NVA BGNS TO BLD INTO THE RGN. SOME 
CNVCTN CUD IGNITE OVR INLAND CNTYS OF CWA THIS AFTN DUE TO HTG AND WK 
UPPER LVL FTRE MOVG THRU WRN PRTNS OF CAROLINAS. 00Z MDL RUNS IN AGRMNT 
PRETTY MCH THRU 48 HRS. NGM A LTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE IN BRNGG CLDS/PCPN 
INTO THE RGN ESP INLAND BY 48 HRS. ETA/AVN HOLD BK SOME. HAVE DECIDED 
TO LEAN TWD THE ETA/AVN SOLN THRU 48 HRS BASED ON PRVS RUNS & CRNT 
SITUATION. ETA A BIT INTERESTING W/DVLPG A THETA E RDG OVR WRN SCTNS OF 
THE CAROLINAS IN 12 HRS & THEN BRNGG THIS FTRE TO THE CNTRL PRTNS OF 
THE BI-STA RGN AS TIME GOES ON. THIS FTRE WL HELP TO ENHANCE CNVCTN IF 
IT TURNS OUT TO BE RGT. FURTHER TO THE E...THGS WL BE LESS XCTG. NVA 
BLDG INTO THE RGN SHUD HELP TO LIMIT TRW ACTIVITY OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS AT 
LEAST. ATMOS RMNS WRM THRU 500 MBS W/TEMPS @ 500 MB NR -5 OR -6 DEGS C. 
AS MNTND ABV...CNVCTN SHUD BE LIMITED TO INLAND SCTNS FOR MOST PART. C 
BREEZ DVLPMNT CUD HELP TO SET OFF THGS AS WELL. FEEL IT WISE TO KP SLGT 
CHC IN FCST FOR TDY DUE TO WHAT WAS JUST MNTND. FAN/FWC NMBRS GNRLY 
ACCTPD. W/C BREEZ...TEMPS CUD BE HELD DOWN A FEW DEGS ALG THE CST.  
  
CRNT BOYDAT/OMR DATA HAD SSE WNDS FM LTLE RVR INLET TO SAV. WUD LIKE TO 
STAY W/SE WND THRU TDY AS BNDRY LYR WNDS SHUD BE MORE OF A SE 
COMPONENT. MRP GUID LUKS TO BE A TAD TOO QUIK TO BRG WNDS TO SSW.

THAT/S ALL FROM HERE. HAVE A GREAT MRNG!.

JOE