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TTAA00 KDEN 011539

COLORADO STATE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER COLORADO
940 AM MDT THU JUN 1 1995

SHORT TERM DISCUSSIONS:

NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO:  UPR LV RDG TO BLD INTO CO TDA
WITH RDG AXIS OVR WRN CO BY 00Z TNGT...ACRDG TO RUC.  NOT MUCH MSTR AT
700 MB FOR CONVECTION TO WRK WITH TDA BUT SOME HIR LVL MSTR AND
LINGERING LOW LVL MSTR TO KICK SOME AFTN TRWS OFF.  WL BE HI BASED IN
VARIETY...MODIFIED THIS MRNGS RAOB FOR DEN AND GOT ARND 500 J/KG FOR
CAPE BUT MODIFIED RUC AT 00Z TDA INDICATED 1125 J/KG OF CAPE.  PROBABLY
SOMEWHERE IN THE MDL.  MOST MSTR IN THE MTNS SO CONVECTION TO INITIATE
THERE.  GSTY WNDS THE MN THRT TDA...DON'T EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF HVY
RNSHWRS WITH THESE TRWS.  RVR IN ERN WLD AND MORGAN COUNTIES WL BE NR
FLOOD STG TDA AS CREST MOVES DOWN RVR...BUT ONLY MINOR FLOODING EXPECTED
...THEREFORE FLOOD WRNG FOR ERN WELD CTY WL BE ALLOWED TO EXP AT NOON.
PRVS FCST LUKS GUD.  FMC  

REST OF COLORADO:  RIDGE CONTINUES MOVING INTO COLORADO AS EVIDENT ON
SATELLITE PICTURES.  THE 12Z GRAND JUNCTION SOUNDING IS A BIT UNSTABLE
THIS MORNING WITH A 2 ON THE CONVECTIVE GUST POTENTIAL.  RUC AND NEW ETA
 STILL SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT LAPSE RATES OVER THE FORECAST AREA BUT
NOT A ALOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  RAN INTERACTIVE SKEW-T FOR GRAND
JUNCTION AT 00Z USING RUC WITH 81/34 TEMPERATURES GOT 800-900 JOULES OF
CAPE.  ALSO RAN ONE FOR SOUTHEAST PLAINS WITH 80/46 TEMPERATURES AND GOT
1100-1200 JOULES OF CAPE.  THE INHERITED ZONES HAVE A 20 PERCENT POP FOR
THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST AREAS...WHICH SEEMS OK AT THIS TIME.   RJK  

LONG TERM DISCUSSION:  NO CHGS TO GOING FCST.  MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS
IN SE/ERN BDR FOR TSTMS FRI...IF LACK OF CAP IN MODEL SOUNDINGS COMES
TRUE ACTION COULD BE MORE WDSPRD SE AND SPREAD INTO NERN PLAINS BY EVE. 
NEW ETA SUPPORTS PREV THINKING ON SVR THREAT...LOOKS BEST IN SE ALG
FTHLS AND SRN BDR WHERE MSTR SHOULD BE RETURNING IN A HURRY. GOT 2500
J/KG CAPE AND -7 LI FOR THIS AREA BASED ON ETA GRIDS...AND NOTE NGM SVR
TSTM PROB ARND 15 PCT.  STILL EARLY TO PLAY UP IN ZONES.     GIMMESTAD

.DEN...NONE.