000 
FPUS3 KBOS 220740
SFDBOS

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
335 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 1994

UNCOMFORTABLY WARM/HUMID WX THRU THE WKND...THO NOT QUITE AS HOT. 
DECENT BRZ THRU SATURDAY EASES DISCOMFORT SLIGHTLY...LIKE A WARM WET
WASHCLOTH.  

AXIS FOR BEST CONVECTION IN SNE IS ALONG N BORDER OF MA FM VCNTY BED
TO CEF-DXR NWWD THRU SAT. 

07Z WKNG SMC AND ASSTD RADAR DEPARTURE OF RW/TRW+ VCNTY ALB WITH DOWN
TREND THRU 12Z. 

LOTS OF BLUE SKY AND CAULIFLOWER CU XPCTED AFTR LOW CLDS HEAT UP LATE
THIS AM IN TROPICAL AIRMASS. 

NGM MOS POPS: RAISED 10-30% TO MENTIONABLE WHERE HEATING IS
STRONGEST...BOS-DXR NWD TO NH/VT BORDER. NOTED 06Z 94Q AND OUR
EXPECTATION ON QPS WILL BE LESS THAN 0.25 THRUOUT SNE XCPT POSS 1/2"
BASIN AVG IN BERKS/FRANKLIN CTY.  WE THINK FAST MVG CELLS AND PROBABLE
CONSTANT CNV ZONE FOR TRAINING NR WHERE OVNT ACTIVITY OCCURRED. 

BLV PINHEAD SCT V2-V4 RW/TRW+ WITH LOBE OF SMC/REMNANT TROP DEPRESSION
5H VORT TAIL SWINGING THRU E MA ARD 18Z...THEN THE MORE STABLE AIRMASS
ALONG S COAST AT 16Z SHUD ACCELERATE NWD AS SLIGHTLY COOLING SEABRZ
REACHING BOS-IJD LN BY 20Z AND PROBABLY KILLING CONVECTIVE TEMP DURING
MID AFTN. 

W CT/W/MA MAY HAVE CONVECTION ANYTIME THIS AFTN IN TROP AIRMASS (W NO
MARINE INFLUENCE) AND WAITS TO BE SEEN IF BETTER SFC SMC FOCUSING
MECHANISM ENHANCES WDSPRD DVLPT DURING MAX HEATING?

TNGT: CUTTING POPS IN DIURNALLY UNFAVORABLE NITETIME AND NO WELL
DEFINED FOCUSING MECH. 

SAT: MOST FVBL REGION APPEARS CT VLY WEST TO NYS BORDER IN AXIS OF
BEST PW/INSTAB ETC WHERE POPS CONTD AS OFFERED BY NGM.  POPS CUT IN E
MA/RI ON SAT IN MODELED MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. 

NGM TEMPS: RAISED TDY THRU SAT AT BDL/BOS DUE TO DAY/NITE COOL BIAS.
HOWEVER 97 UNLIKELY TDY AT BOS DUE TO DEEPER LOW LVL RH (MORE CLD CVR)

MODELS COOL 8H TOMORROW THEREFORE WHILE NGM APPEARS WAY TOO LOW...LFM
MAX OF 92 SHUD B TOPS. 

PATCHY 2 MI FOG CHH AREA CG...BUT BLV TROP MOISTURE PRECLUDES MUCH FOG
TDY/ERLY TNGT ALONG S COAST. 

94O/SWODY 1 REVIEWED AND POTENTIAL INSTAB VIA THETA E IS QUITE LARGE
AT BDL THIS AFTN (LARGER THAN ANYWHERE IN SNE YDY)...THEREFORE PER
SELS...CHC DAMAGING WIND.  VILS MAY B VERY HIGH IN TROPICAL AIRMASS
BUT WONDER IF MUCH HAIL CAN OCCUR TDY? 

BRIEF SPS ARD 6 AM ON CONTINUED HUMIDITY THRU THE WKND WITH 4...POS 5
OR 6 CONSEC DAYS OF 90+ FOR PARTS OF INTERIOR SNE.  WILL INCLUDE A
PIECE ON TSTM POTENTIAL FOR W MA/NW CT THIS AFTN. 

LR: MRF DY 3-5 XPCTD B DELAYED POSS 15 MIN...TRHEREFORE...WILL ISSUE
    SFPMA WITHOUT UPDATING EFP PTN FROM NEW MRF/ECMWF GUIDANCE. 

.BOS...NONE.

DRAG