000 
ACUS1 KMKC 140613
MKC AC 140700

CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AFOS NMCGPH94O

VALID 141200 - 151200Z

REF WW 423...VALID UNTIL 1000Z.

THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN AND EVE ACRS A LARGE
PART OF ERN MN...PORTIONS OF NWRN WI...AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE UPR
MI PEN. THIS AREA IS TO THE RGT OF A LN FM CMX 25 WNW RHI
20 SSW EAU 30 WNW RST 25 E RWF AXN 20 E D45.

SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS
TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 30 NW APN 10 NNW MBL 20 SE OSH 20 W LNR
30 W ALO 45 NE OMA 40 WSW LNK 30 S HSI 45 SW EAR 15 NE LBF
35 S PIR 60 NNW DVL.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RGT OF A LN FM 15 W ELP 20 NW 4CR
20 ESE RTN 40 W GLD CDR 20 W GCC 20 SSE WEY 40 NW BOI OTH.

POTENTIAL IS QUITE HIGH FOR A DANGEROUS OUTBREAK OF SVR TSTMS AND
TORNADOES ACRS PORTIONS OF THE UPR MS VLY THIS AFTN AND EVE...AS AN
AMPLIFYING UPR TROF OVER THE N CNTRL U.S INTERACTS WITH VERY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR ACRS THE OUTLOOK AREA.

14/00Z RAOBS INDICATED AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE BUT CAPPED AMS ACRS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL PLAINS/LWR MO VLY WITH CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING
4000 J/KG (NEARLY 6000 J/KG AT OVN) AND LIS AS LOW AS -12. AS
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ADVECTED NEWD INTO THE UPR MS VLY...VERY STG
40 TO 50 KT LLJ WAS ADVECTING MOISTURE NWD UNDERNEATH CAP.

AS UNSEASONABLY STG MID/UPR JET PROPAGATES AROUND BASE OF UPR
TROF...AND ACRS THE NRN PLAINS/UPR MS VLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF
THE FCST PERIOD...SFC LOW OVER S CNTRL CANADA WILL CONT TO DEEPEN
WITH COLD FRONT SURGING EWD INTO MN DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
CONVERGENCE ALONG BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL COOLING ARE
EXPCD TO OVERCOME/ERASE CAP...RESULTING IN EXPLOSIVE SVR TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. ACTIVITY EXPCD TO RACE EWD THRU UPR PORTIONS OF THE MS
VLY/WRN GREAT LAKES...AND PSBLY DEVELOP SSWWD ALONG FRONT INTO
PORTIONS OF THE N CNTRL PLAINS.

COMBINATION OF STG INSTBY AND STG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...SUG GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS WITH STG/VIOLENT TORNADOES ACRS THE HIGH
RISK AREA. A PWO WILL BE ISSUED ARND 10Z.

..KERR.. 06/14/94