131 
NOUS42 KJAX 161819
PNSJAX
FLZ132-232-231830-

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
219 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

To: Emergency management officials, news media, and other users. 


Effective Thursday, August 27, 2026 the National Weather Service in 
Jacksonville will modify the flood stage levels for the North 
Fork Black Creek near Middleburg (MDLF1)to better reflect impacts 
from flooding along this portion of the river. 


These new flood levels are: 


Action Stage                         11 feet (unchanged)
Minor Flood Stage                 15 feet (lowered 1 foot)
Moderate Flood Stage                 18 feet (unchanged)
Major Flood Stage                 20 feet (lowered 1 foot)


This location is a flood only point, which means forecasts are issued 
whenever the creek is expected to reach or exceed action stage 
within the next five days. Forecasts for this location are provided
by the Southeast River Forecast Center in Peachtree City, Georgia.
River flood warnings are issued by the National Weather Service 
in Jacksonville whenever the river is expected to exceed minor 
flood stage. 


These updated flood stages were a direct result of analysis of several 
significant floods throughout the last 75 years in close partnership
with Clay County Emergency Management. More importantly to clearly
communicate impacts along the North Fork of Black Creek, impact 
statements have been updated to reflect when flood impacts begin 
along the North Fork. 


These statements are: 


28 feet - Historic flooding throughout the North Fork Black Creek 
Basin. The approaches to the Blanding Blvd Bridge on the north 
side of North Fork begin to flood. Widespread inundation of 
numerous sides on both banks of the creek expands with many homes 
uninhabitable or destroyed. 


25 feet - Catastrophic flooding continues throughout the North Fork 
Black Creek Basin. On the north bank of the North Fork, homes not
elevated are rendered uninhabitable on Lazy Acres Trail. Water 
reaches Falcon Run Lane and Country Meadows Drive, surrounding 
residences in the area. On the south bank of the North Fork, Banks
Road and Laurel Drive are impassable. Homes not elevated along 
the creek experience extensive inundation. Elevated structures 
along both banks of the creek begin flooding inside. 


22 feet - Considerable flooding throughout the North Fork Black Creek 
Basin. Water expands on the north bank of the North Fork beyond 
Trefoil Trail, impacting homes on American Way. Lazy Acres Trail 
is impassable in many locations with numerous structures flooded 
with several feet of water inside. On the south bank of the North 
Fork, flooding expands along Scenic Drive and homes along the 
creek. Scenic Drive is impassable in several places. Downstream of
Blanding Blvd Bridge, flooding continues to worsen and expand. 


20 feet - Significant flooding throughout the North Fork Black Creek 
Basin. Flooding worsens considerably on the north bank of the North
Fork along Lazy Acres Road, with numerous residences flooded, 
some with more than 2 feet of water inside. Access into some of 
these areas by Lazy Acres Road becomes impossible. On the south 
bank of the North Fork, Scenic Drive near Wisteria becomes 
impassable. Numerous residences in this area flood, with up to 2 
feet of water inside. Downstream of the Blanding Blvd Bridge 
flooding worsens along North and South Lee. Flooding expands onto 
Cornell and Main Street. 


18 feet - Some homes on Hawk Haven Drive are isolated by flood waters. 
Flooding expands along the north bank of the North Fork along Lazy
Acres Road, with water entering numerous residences. On the south
bank of the North Fork, flooding expands impacting properties 
along Scenic Drive east of Wisteria Lane. Downstream of the 
Blanding Blvd Bridge, water moves under several structures on 
North and South Lee near the creek. 


16 feet - Flooding expands into the yards of more properties along 
Lazy Acres Road on the north bank of the North Fork. Flooding 
begins further downstream of the Blanding Blvd Bridge along North 
and South Lee. Flooding begins on areas of the south bank of the 
North Fork, particularly at Scenic Drive and Enchanted Lane. 


15 feet - Water begins to enter backyards of residential properties 
along Hawk Haven Road and Lazy Acres Road and Redbug Alley on the
north bank of the North Fork. Flooding begins at Enchanted Lane 
on the south bank of the North Fork. 


13 feet - Water begins to flood into wooded areas along portions of 
North Fork Black Creek downstream from the gage to near Blanding 
Blvd. 


The data for this forecast point is provided through our partner, 
the US Geological Survey. Without this critical data, forecasts and 
warnings would not be possible at this location. You can learn more 
about this and other stream gages in Florida by visiting: 


https://www.usgs.gov/centers/cfwsc


To get the latest information on this and other river forecast 
points in the Tallahassee area of responsibility, please visit our 
website at: 


https://water.noaa.gov/wfo/JAX


For further information regarding this change, please contact: 


Kelly G Godsey                              Jason Hess
Senior Service Hydrologist                  Hydro Program Manager
NWS Tallahassee Florida                     NWS Jacksonville Florida
Tallahassee, Florida 32306                  Jacksonville, Florida 32218
850-942-8833        ext 228                        904-741-4370
kelly.godsey@noaa.gov                       jason.hess@noaa.gov


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