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Displaying AFOS PIL: ESFIWX Received: 2014-02-18 09:40 UTC
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166 FGUS73 KIWX 180940 ESFIWX INC001-003-009-017-033-039-049-053-069-075-085-087-091-099-103- 113-131-141-149-151-169-179-181-183-MIC021-023-027-059-149-OHC003- 039-051-069-125-137-161-171-190945- ADAMS-ALLEN IN-BLACKFORD-CASS IN-DE KALB-ELKHART-FULTON IN-GRANT- HUNTINGTON-JAY-KOSCIUSKO-LAGRANGE-LA PORTE-MARSHALL-MIAMI-NOBLE- PULASKI-ST. JOSEPH IN-STARKE-STEUBEN-WABASH-WELLS-WHITE-WHITLEY- BERRIEN-BRANCH-CASS MI-HILLSDALE-ST. JOSEPH MI-ALLEN OH-DEFIANCE- FULTON OH-HENRY-PAULDING-PUTNAM-VAN WERT-WILLIAMS- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 440 AM EST TUE FEB 18 2014 /340 AM CST TUE FEB 18 2014/ ...INCREASED FLOOD POTENTIAL BY THURSDAY... SEVERAL FACTORS WILL COMBINE TO CREATE AN INCREASED FLOOD RISK STARTING LATER THIS WEEK. WIDESPREAD SNOW AND ICE CONTAIN A LARGE QUANTITY OF STORED WATER...GENERALLY 1.5 TO 4.0 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE GREATEST WATER CONTENT ACROSS FAR NORTHERN INDIANA AND SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS RISING ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING DURING THIS PERIOD HOWEVER...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BY THURSDAY WHICH WILL ACT TO INCREASE THE RATE OF SNOWMELT. SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THIS POTENTIAL RAINFALL COMBINED WITH INCREASED RUNOFF FROM MELTING SNOW ATOP THE FROZEN GROUND MAY LEAD TO A HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...BASEMENTS AND SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. SIGNIFICANT RISES ALONG MAJOR STEM RIVERS COULD FOLLOW. THESE WARMER CONDITIONS AND RUNOFF LATER IN THE WEEK WILL LEAD TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR BREAK UP AND DOWNSTREAM MOVEMENT OF THICK ICE ON RIVERS THAT WOULD INCREASE THE RISK FOR ICE JAMS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE THE FLOODING POTENTIAL. FUTURE FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY AT THIS TIME...NOT A CERTAINTY. THE SEVERITY AND TIMING OF FLOODING WILL DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL RECEIVED THURSDAY...AND THE EXACT DURATION OF WARMER CONDITIONS...WHICH REMAINS UNCERTAIN. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA...NOW IS THE TIME TO PREPARE FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING. STAY ALERT TO THE LATEST FORECASTS TRENDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BY VISITING WEATHER.GOV/IWX. ADDITIONAL FLOOD AWARENESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT WEATHER.GOV/FLOODSAFETY AND READY.GOV/FLOODS $$