National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDSJT Received: 2019-08-23 05:24 UTC


687 
FXUS64 KSJT 230524
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1224 AM CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

.AVIATION... 
/06Z TAFS/

Primarily VFR conditions expected through 06Z Sat, except for
brief MVFR/IFR/LIFR CIGs where heavy showers/thunderstorms occur.
Through 09Z, thunderstorms across the Concho Valley and western
Big Country will likely continue, with brief heavy rain possible.
After 09Z, shower/thunderstorm activity should diminish. Then
isolated to scattered thunderstorms likely to develop after 19Z 
across the forecast area. For now, went with VCSH for the TAF 
sites for that time period, but may need to go to VCTS if 
confidence increases. Winds, other than N to NW gusty winds from 
thunderstorm gust fronts, should continue to be from the south, 
mostly less than 12 KT. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 957 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/ 

UPDATE...
Per recent radar trends, the forecast tonight has been updated to
carry increased PoPs across the western Big Country and parts of 
the Concho Valley. Showers have increased in coverage across the
western Concho Valley (Irion, Sterling and far northwestern Tom
Green Counties) with an outflow boundary moving southeast into the
area. The outflow boundary emanated from showers and 
thunderstorms over parts of the eastern Permian Basin. Cloud cover
has also been increased across the western half of our area 
including the Concho Valley. This shower/thunderstorm activity is
expected to dissipate as we go into the overnight hours.  

19

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 659 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/ 

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Isolated convection
is possible through mid evening, primarily near KSOA and will 
add VCSH through 02Z and amend as necessary. Isolated to widely 
scattered convection will be possible again late Friday afternoon,
with the better chance near KABI. Given uncertainties regarding 
coverage, will hold off mentioning at this time.  

24  

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 242 PM CDT Thu Aug 22 2019/ 

SHORT TERM...
(Tonight and Tomorrow)

This afternoon, the pesky upper-level ridge continues to plague 
the southern Plains with hot weather. However, a few weaknesses in
the ridge are allowing thunderstorms to develop across parts of 
the Big Country. Some of these storms may drift down towards the 
I-20 corridor overnight before weakening. Otherwise, conditions 
should be partly cloudy with mild temperatures.

Tomorrow, a weak mid-level impulse will move across the Red River
Valley which will help to bring more chances for thunderstorms, 
mainly tomorrow afternoon, across the Big Country. Some isolated 
showers and thunderstorms will be possible for parts of the 
Edwards Plateau and Concho Valley tomorrow afternoon, where a 
narrow plume of CAPE values exceed 2500 J/kg, and where ample 
dynamics exist aloft. Outside of precipitation, the airmass will 
still be warm enough to support highs in the upper 90s to around 
100.

SK

LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Thursday)

Friday night into Saturday, models continue to show a possibility
of some scattered showers and thunderstorms, as shortwave energy 
moves through the area. Chances were kept at slight chance as the 
activity is expected to be isolated to scattered at best. 
Temperatures will continue to be hotter than normal through this 
time period, but we could see a few degrees cooler for Saturday 
with the potential for additional cloud cover in the area. 

Sunday and Monday continue to look very hot, with highs from the
upper 90s to around 105 degrees for most of the area, although
it's not out of the realm of possibilities for locations in the
Big Country to approach 110 degrees. 

Following Monday, medium range models have not backed off on the
possibility of a cold front for next week. This would mean
continued hot and generally dry weather through the end of next
week. Obviously, with the models going back and forth on
solutions, the forecast is very uncertain after Monday, but have 
kept temperatures warmer than normal through the second half of 
next week. 

20

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene 	 96  74  97  75 /  20  20  20  10 
San Angelo 	101  73  98  73 /  20  20  20  10 
Junction 	100  72  98  72 /  10  20  20  10 
Brownwood 	100  72  98  72 /  10  10  20  10 
Sweetwater 	 96  74  98  75 /  20  20  10  10 
Ozona      	 96  71  95  71 /  20  20  20  10 

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...24/20/SK
AVIATION 06Z TAFS...SJH