National Weather Service Raw Text Product

551 
FXUS61 KPBZ 191720
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
120 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic showers and thunderstorms will continue through the week as
a frontal boundary remains stalled in the region and several 
disturbances cross the upper Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Minimal changes were needed with the 7am update.

Given very saturated soils, high PWATs, and efficient rainfall 
associated with these slow-moving showers, flooding and flash 
flooding continue to be a threat. The flash flood watch for much of 
the area continues until 8pm Thursday. Additional convection is 
expected to develop along the sfc boundary with daytime heating. 
Initial development should continue to be primarily south of I-80 
where lift and convergence will favor convection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
More widespread showers and thunderstorms and an increased flash
flooding threat are expected tonight through Thursday with the 
passing of two shortwave troughs and a cold frontal passage Thursday 
night. Approach of the associated sfc low on Thursday should lift 
the stationary boundary northwards and will help to focus increased 
rainfall near the I-80 corridor.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cooler and finally drier weather is expected Friday following the 
cold frontal passage. A ridge will build eastward across the Great
Lakes region through the weekend, though guidance continues to 
suggest some convection for parts of the area on Saturday and Sunday.

Rain will return areawide on Monday as the ridge shifts east and yet
another series of disturbances impact the region.

Temperatures will increase to near average under the ridge this
weekend, with slightly above average temperatures to start the work
week.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Coverage of showers has blossomed since noon, and scattered showers
will continue through the afternoon hours. Still unsure as to just
how far north thunderstorms will manage to occur. For now have kept a
VCTS mention in TAFs from Pittsburgh to the south. While there will 
be a slight lull in precipitation after midnight, widespread showers 
will move in from the west with approaching low pressure. Widespread 
showers should continue through Thursday. As has been the case the 
last several days, ceilings will drop after midnight and reach their 
lowest point around sunrise, with IFR/MVFR expected at all terminals 
before rebounding to MVFR by mid-day.

.Outlook...
Periodic restrictions are possible through Friday as a frontal zone 
sags over the region and interacts with crossing disturbances to 
produce frequent showers and storms. Friday and Saturday should be
lacking in restrictions, but another low pressure system will
approach the region Sunday.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MDZ001.
OH...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for OHZ039>041-048>050-
     057>059-068-069.
PA...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for PAZ013>016-020>023-
     029-031-073>076.
WV...Flash Flood Watch through Thursday evening for WVZ001>004-012-021-
     509>514.

&&

$$