National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDMPX Received: 2015-08-15 21:08 UTC


488 
FXUS63 KMPX 152108
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
408 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

TODAY/S TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS AREN/T QUITE AS WARM AS 
YESTERDAY THANKS TO THE THERMAL RIDGE CONSTRICTING WEST A BIT AND A 
LOBE OF COOLER AIR ROTATING AROUND THE HIGH INTO SRN MN/WRN WI. 
STILL A RATHER WARM DAY WITH HEAT INDICES RANGING FROM 90 TO 95. THE 
METRO HAS SOME OF THE LOWER DEW POINTS WHICH HAS HELPED WITH THE 
EXCESSIVE HEAT RISK...BUT AS MIXING SUBSIDES A BIT LATE THIS 
AFTERNOON SOME OF THOSE READINGS MAY BOUNCE BACK UP TO AROUND 70. 
THUS...WILL KEEP THE HEAT ADVISORY GOING FOR HENNEPIN AND RAMSEY 
COUNTIES UNTIL 7 PM.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER 
THE DAKOTAS ALONG A COLD FRONT. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS 
ACTIVITY WEAKENING OVERNIGHT AS IT HEADS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN 
MN. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL HAVE DISSIPATED AROUND 12Z...WITH 
SUNDAY MORNING EXPECTING TO BE DRY. BY AFTERNOON...INSTABILITY WILL 
BUILD SOME ALONG THE FRONT WITH DEW POINT POOLING A GOOD 
POSSIBILITY. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 
LOW TO MID 80S AND CAPPING MAY RESULT. HOWEVER...PW VALUES AROUND 2 
INCHES MAY MINIMIZE THIS AND HELP POCKETS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS 
DEVELOP...CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIRES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS 
DEVELOPMENT CONFINED TO ALONG THE I-90 CORRIDOR...BUT THE GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE FURTHER NORTH FROM SOUTHWEST MN TO WEST CENTRAL WI. DID 
NOT CHANGE TOO MUCH WITH THE POP FORECAST FROM THE OVERNIGHT 
SHIFT AND WILL AWAIT MORE RUNS BEFORE LATCHING ONTO EITHER IDEA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

A WET AND COOLER LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD IS EXPECTED...WITH MULTIPLE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR 1 INCH+ RAINFALL EVENTS AND HIGHS IN THE
60S/70S.

THE FIRST RAINFALL EVENT WILL KICK OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS A
COLD FRONT WASHES OUT FROM NORTHWEST IOWA ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND
CENTRAL WI ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BY 00Z MONDAY...925-850MB
MOISTURE TRANSPORT NOSES INTO THE AREA AS NAEFS PRECIPITABLE
WATER STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES INCREASE TO AROUND 2.5. MODEL
AGREEMENT CONTINUES TO BE QUITE GOOD...AND GFS ENSEMBLE SURFACE
PROBS OF .3 INCHES IN 6 HOURS RANGE FROM 80-100 PERCENT ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN FOR THE 00Z-
06Z MON TIMEFRAME. THEREFORE EXPECT MOST AREAS WILL SEE AT LEAST A
QUARTER INCH ON SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE LOW-END OF PRECIP
RANGES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR THE HIGH-END TO EASILY ECLIPSE ONE
INCH. 

MONDAY THE BOUNDARY DRIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION
ENDING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME AND COOLER HIGHS IN THE 70S.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LEESIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS ENSUES AS A
MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK/AMPLITUDE
OF THE SURFACE TRACK IS STILL NOT GREAT...BUT IT LOOKS AS IF AT
LEAST THE SOUTH/EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD SEE
PROLONGED PRECIPITATION FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IF
THE GFS PANS OUT...SEVERE WEATHER WOULD BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPS MAY EVEN STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE 60S ON
WEDNESDAY...WHICH HAS NOT HAPPENED SINCE JUNE. IN THE WAKE OF THE
SYSTEM...TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY MODERATE BACK TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT AND
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN
AS THEY HEAD INTO MN...WITH THE LEFT OVER BAND OF SHOWERS ALSO
DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. THEY MAY NOT EVEN MAKE IT TO MSP/RNH.
CONTINUED THE VCSH AT AXN/STC/RWF WITH A PROB30 FOR THUNDER.
SEVERAL HIRES MODELS AREN/T SHOWING MUCH. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME AFTER THE PERIOD.

KMSP...MAINLY CLEAR AND DRY THROUGH THE EVENING. VFR EXPECTED.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. CHC OF TSRA EARLY. WINDS N 5-10 KTS. 
TUE...VFR/MVFR CIGS. POSS IFR CIGS. SHRA/TSRA. WINDS E/ESE 10 KTS.
WED...VFR/MVFR CIGS. POSS IFR CIGS. SHRA/TSRA. WINDS NE-N 10 KTS.


&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ060-062.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BORGHOFF 
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...BORGHOFF