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249 FXUS62 KMLB 192313 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 713 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 ...New KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 713 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 - Very warm and humid conditions with peak afternoon heat indices up to 110 and Moderate to Major HeatRisk impacts continue across portions of east central Florida through early next week. - Rain and lightning storm chances remain below normal through this weekend, with chances increasing once again next week as a weakening front and high moisture approach from the north. && .PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Currently...Wasn't hard to find the ridge axis from the Atlantic surface high in this morning's cu-field, extending west-southwest from near Sebastian/Vero Beach inland. A decent amount of moisture remains near the surface, contributing to the oppressive heat, while at the same time very dry conditions in the low-mid levels have been hostile to deep convection. GOES PWATs range from 1.4" along the coast behind the sea breeze, to around 1.6" across most of East Central Florida, peaking around 1.8" north of I-4 where a few showers and lightning storms have managed to develop on the east coast sea breeze and lake breeze boundaries. Rest of Today...Subsidence from mid-level ridging directly over central Florida and southerly flow around the ridge axis will push afternoon temperatures into the L-M90s, which combined with humidity will produce peak heat indices between 102-110, higher to north where it's a little warmer. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Brevard, Lake, Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia counties until 6 PM. This level of heat can impact most people spending extended periods of time outdoors, putting everyone at a greater risk for heat stress. If spending long durations outside today, be sure to remain adequately hydrated, take frequent breaks in the shade or air conditioning, wear lightweight, lightly colored clothing, and if possible, shift activities away from the peak heating hours of the day. Expect little to no relief from rain (in fact rain might actually make things work by spiking humidity), as entrainment and subsidence continue to be significant hurdles to deep convection. There's a 10-20% chance of showers and lightning storms popping up on boundaries and the sea breeze through the rest of the afternoon, increasing to all of 20-40% along and north of the I-4 corridor in the evening with the sea breeze collision and higher moisture. That said, any storms that manage to develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, wind gusts to 45 mph, and brief heavy downpours thanks to T500 remaining around -8C and downdraft enhancement from the dry air. Sunday-Monday...The mid-level ridge shifts westward, reducing the effect of subsidence warming some, but low-level flow becoming more southerly to southwesterly as the ridge axis shifts further south makes up the difference and then some, helping to push high temperatures closer to the M-U90s, especially Monday. While forecast dewpoint temperatures have dropped a degree or two since the previous package, these hot temperatures combined with humidity are still expected to produce peak afternoon heat indices of 102-110, especially from Osceola and Brevard counties north where the effect of the southerly to southwesterly flow will have the greatest impact (i.e. it'll be hot), and additional Heat Advisories remain on the table. Rain and storm chances remain dismal Sunday at just 20-30% inland (well inland to the south), but begin to improve Monday increasing to 20-50% across the area as the high aloft departs westward and low-mid level moisture increases ahead of an approaching weakening front. Any storms that manage to develop remain capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, and heavy downpours, with higher chances of seeing these stronger storms Monday as the environment becomes more favorable and overall coverage increases. Showers and storms continue to follow the usual afternoon timing pattern, diminishing into the late evening and early overnight, but chances for convection lingering late across the local Atlantic waters increases Monday night. Tuesday-Friday...(Modified Previous Discussion) By Tuesday, the mid-level ridge weakens across the Gulf, allowing a weakening front to approach Florida. The front is forecast to stall just north of the area, with the potential for a low to develop along the boundary and shift westward towards the Gulf. This is forecast to result in increasing moisture across east central Florida, with PWATs surging above 2 inches once again. Rain and storm chances increase through the remainder of the work week, with PoPs capped at 70 percent through the extended period at this time. While it is still too early to determine exact storm threats, lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours will all be possible given the current model guidance. Heat will continue to be a concern through next week, though highs fall slightly into the upper 80s to low 90s thanks to the greater rain and storm chances helping to limit daytime heating. However, conditions remain muggy, with peak heat indices still forecast to reach 102 to 107 across much of east central Florida. Some areas may exceed advisory thresholds, but confidence in this does remain lower this far out. Lows remains seasonable in the low to mid 70s overnight, with muggy conditions persisting. && .MARINE... Issued at 304 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Generally favorable albeit hot boating conditions continue through the weekend and early next week. The ridge axis of the Atlantic high will slowly drop from Central Florida today to South Florida by Monday, as a front and associated higher moisture moves into the Deep South. Mostly dry conditions expected through Sunday, then rain chances increase again Monday. The high further weakens going towards mid-week, allowing the weakening frontal boundary to drop closer to Florida. High rain chances return as moisture surges across the area, and there is potential for a low pressure system to develop along this boundary, causing winds and seas to deteriorate. Mainly southerly winds backing to the southeast to east in the afternoon with the sea breeze today and Sunday become more southwesterly, backing to the south to southeast with the sea breeze Monday onward. Seas 1-3 ft through Tuesday could increase Wednesday and Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFs) Issued at 713 PM EDT Sat Jul 19 2025 Unusually quiet TAFs through this weekend as high pressure suppresses convection. Light/variable winds over the Greater Orlando area for much of the period, becoming ESE up to 12 KT at the coastal airfields Sunday afternoon. Small (<= 30%) chance of showers/storms for Greater Orlando area terminals returning after 20/21Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 94 76 94 / 10 20 10 40 MCO 76 97 77 97 / 10 30 10 40 MLB 76 92 76 94 / 0 10 10 30 VRB 74 92 73 93 / 0 10 0 20 LEE 77 95 77 94 / 20 20 10 40 SFB 76 97 77 97 / 10 20 10 40 ORL 77 97 77 97 / 10 30 10 40 FPR 74 92 73 93 / 0 10 0 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Haley AVIATION...Heil