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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLMK Received: 2016-02-29 20:30 UTC


309 
FXUS63 KLMK 292030
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
330 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday Night)...
Issued at 300 PM EST Mon Feb 29 2016

High pressure continues to build into the region this afternoon
after this morning's cold frontal passage.  While skies are sunny,
cold air advection is hampering insolation and temperatures
generally remain in the low-mid 50s in the north with mid-upper 50s
down south.  We should see our daily maximums occur in the next hour
or so.  Temperatures this evening will fall into the the 40s and
then fall into the lower 40s late tonight and early Tuesday morning.

For Tuesday, initially two mid-level waves (northern/southern stream)
are expected phase west of the MS and then head into the northern
Ohio Valley.  This will result in a surface low moving from MO into
northern IN with a surface cold front trailing to the southwest.
Strong diffluent flow aloft will overspread the region as
accompanying speed max noses in with the phased wave aloft.  

A low level jet axis will push plenty of moisture up into the Ohio
Valley, but overall thermodynamics are not as impressive this far
north (Lower Ohio Valley).  Latest model proximity soundings still
show somewhat steep lapse rates, but not as impressive as in the
last few runs.  Given the overall profile being close to moist
adiabatic, strongest instability looks to be south of our region
across the Tennessee Valley.   Nevertheless, we expect to see
widespread rain shower activity during the day on Tuesday and PoPs
will be raised accordingly.  Will keep chance of thunder going in
the forecast.  However, will keep a close eye on things tomorrow as
threat could be a little higher if we were to see some breaks in the
clouds as the system moves through.   Highs on Tuesday look to warm
into the upper 50s in the north with lower-mid 60s across the south
just ahead of the front.  QPF amounts of 1/2 to 3/4 of inch look
likely across the region.

As the frontal system heads eastward Tuesday evening, colder air
will be drawn down into the region on the back side.  This will be
another case of cold air trying to catch the departing
precipitation.  A few snow showers will be possible Tuesday night as
the colder air works into the region.  However, combination of warm
ground temperatures and short temporal window of opportunity will
likely result in little or no accumulation.   Lows by Wednesday
morning will cool into the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 330 PM EST Mon Feb 29 2016

The long term periods will start of dry with clearing skies and cool
temperatures fore Wednesday.  Daytime highs look to warm into the
lower 40s with lows dropping Wednesday night into the upper 20s to
the lower 30s.

Another potent mid-level wave will push into the region on Thursday.
There remains a bit of a split in the guidance on the track of the
system with the Euro shifting southward in the last few runs.  The
overall shift southward does not result in much change to the
ongoing forecast.  We will have to watch precipitation coming into
the region on Thursday morning as surface temperatures could be cold
enough for a wintry mix at the start.  However, strong advection on
the southeast side of the system will allow the boundary layer to
warm quickly into the mid-upper 40s in the north with upper 40s to
around 50 in the south.  We'll see another chance of some wintry
weather Thursday night as cold air attempts to wrap in behind the
system as precipitation departs.  Lows Thursday night will dip into
the lower-mid 30s.

Friday looks to be a dry/cool day as the Thursday system pushes off
to the east. Highs look to top out in the mid-upper 40s in the north
with upper 40s to around 50 in the south.  Lows Friday night look to
drop into the lower 30s.  Another clipper type system will pass to
the north of the region on Saturday bringing a batch of clouds and
perhaps some slight precipitation chances across the far
north/northeast.  Temps will warm back into the 50s with lows
dropping back into the mid 30s.  

We should see a period of height rises as we move into Sunday along
with an increasing southerly flow.  This should allow temperatures
to warm into the lower 60s across the area.  Ridging is expected to
develop in earnest early next week across the eastern US as
troughing develops out across the western CONUS.  Some weak/sheared
out energy may result in some light precipitation chances for
Monday, but overall confidence remains a bit low at this time.
Though future forecasts may need to increase PoPs.   Beyond Monday
much warmer temperatures are expected across the Ohio Valley as a
deep southwesterly flow becomes established.  This will likely push
temperatures some 15-20 degrees above seasonal normals.  However,
this warmth will also come with the potential for strong storms by
mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1202 PM EST Mon Feb 29 2016

The stratocu has moved east of the area this morning with just a few
lower clouds across SDF and LEX. Mainly clear skies will continue
through this afternoon and much of the overnight hours. Winds will
shift from west-northwesterly to southerly from early this afternoon
through early evening. Southerly winds will continue into tomorrow.

Lower clouds will move in tomorrow morning as a low pressure system
moves into the area. Showers will move into SDF and BWG right around
dawn with rain chances increasing through the morning. Will
introduce a chance for thunderstorms as well mid morning tomorrow
and that will continue into the afternoon. Will hold off on
mentioning thunder at LEX at this time as storms will likely move in
later into the afternoon hours.

&&

.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term........MJ
Long Term.........MJ
Aviation..........EER