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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLMK Received: 2016-02-29 17:04 UTC

FXUS63 KLMK 291704

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1204 PM EST MON FEB 29 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated 1055 AM EST Mon Feb 29 2016

Just did a quick refresh of the grids to align hourly T/Td/Sky grids
with current observations.  Current readings across the region are
in the upper 30s to the lower-mid 40s.  With full sun, we'll still
be battling cold air advection, so afternoon highs in the lower-mid
50s in the north with mid-upper 50s to around 60 across the south
still looks on target.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Feb 29 2016 is the Leap Year addition of the AFD, much different
than the last Leap Year mid shift 4 years ago with several twisters
on the mid shift in Illinois, including an EF4 in Harrisburg IL, and
then more tornadoes hitting Etown, Clarkson, and Hodgenville
in Kentucky during the day.

Anyway, line of prefrontal showers along I 71 racing east at 50 mph
early this morning. This has been producing pea size hail and
several wind gusts 35 to 45 mph.  That is not counting some gusts
approaching 50 mph with the first scattered area of showers with
steep llvl lapse rate and mid level entrainment and had several
bursts of wind. Winds are settling down. 

Actual front is the last weak line of shra across southern IN.  Once
this passes thru that's the end of the pcpn for the day. The clouds
will thin quickly from the west, but cyclonic flow over the Land of
Lincoln will swing 4-5 hour band of stratocu in the northern
Bluegrass and then that area too will enjoy some nice sunshine with
wnw winds backing to sw-wly winds this aftn.  

Despite the clearing of the clouds the CAA will fight some modest
sunshine, and am planning 54-58 F under high pressure. Looking for
lows tonight in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with clouds increasing
after midnight. 

Tue...northern stream over Hawkeye State to Land of Lincoln will
phase with southern stream system over the Sooner State and dominant
sfc low across the Ohio Valley.  This brings an all day rain with
100% POPS with decent omega fields, strong upper jet, and a
cornucopia of moisture too. Latest model run has sfc low swinging
across south central IN allowing for some limited instability ahead
of the actual front.  

The wind fields are quite impressive at H8-H5, with 850 mb winds of
55kts at 18z Tue and H5 jet of 75-80 kts by Wed 00z. Typical late
winter event with increasing deep layer shear and overall impressive
kinematics. SPC has area in a slight risk, and there could be a few
strong storms, sounding profiles support a few strong storms,
especially small to mdt hail with such a low WBZ with steep mid
level lapse rates from 650 mb to 450 mb.  Right now, not playing up
this event due to saturated airmass, if the clouds were to thin out
a little more, the threat would amp up.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Feb 29 2016

Well...depending on how fast the cold air moves in late Tuesday
night, a very brief period of light snow may be possible, but think
for the most part this system will be a rain maker with half an inch
to an inch of rain across most locations.  Kept current fcst going
with shra/snsh light quick mix. 

Wednesday should be mostly dry with clearing skies and some cool
sunshine with highs in the lower 40s and lows Wednesday night in the
upper 20s to lower 30s. 

Thu into Thu night will be the next chance for precipitation as
another shortwave moves through the region. Any precipitation during
the day Thursday should be rain as temperatures rise into the mid to
upper 40s. Once the cold air wraps in there could be a
brief changeover to snow and kept the same exact fcst as the
previous day shift fcstr. 

Beyond Thursday night, models going mainly dry forecast for now with
temperatures rising again into the weekend. Both GFS and Euro bring
transitory high amplitude ridge into the CWA next Mon-Tue which
would a bring some abv normal spring like temps, if this comes to


.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1202 PM EST Mon Feb 29 2016

The stratocu has moved east of the area this morning with just a few
lower clouds across SDF and LEX. Mainly clear skies will continue
through this afternoon and much of the overnight hours. Winds will
shift from west-northwesterly to southerly from early this afternoon
through early evening. Southerly winds will continue into tomorrow.

Lower clouds will move in tomorrow morning as a low pressure system
moves into the area. Showers will move into SDF and BWG right around
dawn with rain chances increasing through the morning. Will
introduce a chance for thunderstorms as well mid morning tomorrow
and that will continue into the afternoon. Will hold off on
mentioning thunder at LEX at this time as storms will likely move in
later into the afternoon hours.


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....JDG
Long Term......JDG