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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLMK Received: 2016-02-29 08:00 UTC

FXUS63 KLMK 290800

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
300 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 240 AM EST Mon Feb 29 2016 is the Leap Year addition of the AFD, much different
than the last Leap Year mid shift 4 years ago with several twisters
on the mid shift in Illinois, including an EF4 in Harrisburg IL, and
then more tornadoes hitting Etown, Clarkson, and Hodgenville
in Kentucky during the day.

Anyway, line of prefrontal showers along I 71 racing east at 50 mph
early this morning. This has been producing pea size hail and
several wind gusts 35 to 45 mph.  That is not counting some gusts
approaching 50 mph with the first scattered area of showers with
steep llvl lapse rate and mid level entrainment and had several
bursts of wind. Winds are settling down. 

Actual front is the last weak line of shra across southern IN.  Once
this passes thru that's the end of the pcpn for the day. The clouds
will thin quickly from the west, but cyclonic flow over the Land of
Lincoln will swing 4-5 hour band of stratocu in the northern
Bluegrass and then that area too will enjoy some nice sunshine with
wnw winds backing to sw-wly winds this aftn.  

Despite the clearing of the clouds the CAA will fight some modest
sunshine, and am planning 54-58 F under high pressure. Looking for
lows tonight in the upper 30s to mid 40s, with clouds increasing
after midnight. 

Tue...northern stream over Hawkeye State to Land of Lincoln will
phase with southern stream system over the Sooner State and dominant
sfc low across the Ohio Valley.  This brings an all day rain with
100% POPS with decent omega fields, strong upper jet, and a
cornucopia of moisture too. Latest model run has sfc low swinging
across south central IN allowing for some limited instability ahead
of the actual front.  

The wind fields are quite impressive at H8-H5, with 850 mb winds of
55kts at 18z Tue and H5 jet of 75-80 kts by Wed 00z. Typical late
winter event with increasing deep layer shear and overall impressive
kinematics. SPC has area in a slight risk, and there could be a few
strong storms, sounding profiles support a few strong storms,
especially small to mdt hail with such a low WBZ with steep mid
level lapse rates from 650 mb to 450 mb.  Right now, not playing up
this event due to saturated airmass, if the clouds were to thin out
a little more, the threat would amp up.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Mon Feb 29 2016

Well...depending on how fast the cold air moves in late Tuesday
night, a very brief period of light snow may be possible, but think
for the most part this system will be a rain maker with half an inch
to an inch of rain across most locations.  Kept current fcst going
with shra/snsh light quick mix. 

Wednesday should be mostly dry with clearing skies and some cool
sunshine with highs in the lower 40s and lows Wednesday night in the
upper 20s to lower 30s. 

Thu into Thu night will be the next chance for precipitation as
another shortwave moves through the region. Any precipitation during
the day Thursday should be rain as temperatures rise into the mid to
upper 40s. Once the cold air wraps in there could be a
brief changeover to snow and kept the same exact fcst as the
previous day shift fcstr. 

Beyond Thursday night, models going mainly dry forecast for now with
temperatures rising again into the weekend. Both GFS and Euro bring
transitory high amplitude ridge into the CWA next Mon-Tue which
would a bring some abv normal spring like temps, if this comes to


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1222 AM EST Mon Feb 29 2016

Line of gusty showers, with a few embedded rumbles of thunder, and
associated cold front will pass through the TAF sites, especially
SDF and LEX, in the first few hours of the forecast. These showers
will bring gusty west winds and possibly MVFR vsbys, though
ceilings will stay well VFR. Winds will gradually settle down
once the showers exit.

Behind the front, a large area of clouds is seen on satellite from
the upper Mississippi Valley through Illinois and western Indiana.
Motion of the cloud field suggests these MVFR ceilings may affect
SDF and LEX. Model data agree with this scenario, but keep SDF and
LEX right on the edge of the cloud field. For now will need to
introduce MVFR stratocu at SDF and LEX, but will keep it above fuel
alternate and will closely monitor trends.

Otherwise, high pressure moving into the region will give us a very
pleasant day during the daylight hours with light winds and clear


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term........JDG
Long Term.........JDG