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Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLMK Received: 2016-02-29 05:23 UTC

FXUS63 KLMK 290523

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
1223 AM EST MON FEB 29 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

...Forecast Update...
Updated at 1045 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2016

Solid convective line has formed along the cold front, with
lightning picking up at the tail end of the line just NW of EVV. Hi-
res models are showing a narrow ribbon of 100-200 J/kg of CAPE right
along the line, which is helping to enhance it. Will add the mention
of thunder mainly to our northern and western counties as this line
moves in.  

Showers ahead of the line are producing wind gusts spproaching 50
mph as precip evaporates in the very dry boundary layer. Have issued
a Special Weather Statement highlighting the gust potential. 

Updated at 825 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2016

Unseasonably mild and breezy this evening across the Ohio Valley,
with the approaching cold front now extending from near SBN, between
LAF and CMI, to east of STL. A smattering of showers ahead of the
front is just starting to get into our southern Indiana counties,
but a lot of dry low-level air to overcome. Believe that the precip
will eventually win the battle, so forecast of scattered showers is
well on track, but really no more than that as it's a low-QPF event
anyway and quite a few locations could trace out. We have seen a few
lightning strikes over east-central Illinois and west-central
Indiana within the last hour, but believe we are too far removed
from the upper dynamics to support thunder this far south. No
changes planned at this time.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Monday Night)...
Issued at 240 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2016

Gusty winds will continue this afternoon into the evening ahead of
the cold front approaching from the northwest. Most gusts have
remained at or below 40 mph this afternoon, with the exception of
HNB, which gusted to around 45 mph at one point. However, gusts
since then have relaxed a bit. The magnitude of the gusts will
decrease a bit this evening, but they will continue until the front
passes through. Will likely keep the Special Weather Statement out
for now as the higher wind gusts are mainly to the west of the
forecast area.

Rain showers are expected to move into southern IN this evening with
a line of showers progressing towards the Ohio River through
midnight. These showers will move through central Kentucky mainly
after midnight and be out of the forecast area by dawn. NAM soundings
do show some very slight elevated instability, but for the most part
expect these to be just showers, so will keep the mention of thunder
out of the forecast. 

High pressure will be moving across the region Monday and east of
the area Monday night as a low pressure system begins to approach
from the west. Monday will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny, but
cooler than today with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Monday
night will see lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 305 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2016

By Tuesday morning winds aloft will be southwesterly as a shortwave
digs into the central US. The surface low associated with this
system will move out of the Midwest and across the lower Ohio Valley
through the day Tuesday. The cold front associated with this system
will move through Tuesday evening/night. The latest model trends
with the track of the low pressure have been back to the northwest
from what they were advertising over the last couple of days. This
would mean a warmer system with a better chance for thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening. Model soundings do show some slight
instability developing. In addition, low level winds will strengthen
with increasing shear and helicity through the afternoon. Though
widespread severe weather is not expected, a few strong storms with
gusty winds and possibly some small hail are not out of the

Depending on how fast the cold air moves in late Tuesday night, a
very brief period of light snow may be possible, but think for the
most part this system will be a rain maker with half an inch to an
inch of rain not out of the question in some places. 

Wednesday should be mostly dry but cooler with highs in the lower
40s and lows Wednesday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Thursday into Thursday night will be the next chance for
precipitation as another shortwave moves through the region. Any
precipitation during the day Thursday should be rain as temperatures
rise into the mid to upper 40s. This system right now looks to have
precip lingering into the overnight hours as cold air builds in, so
a brief changeover to snow will again be possible. Beyond Thursday
night, we will go with a dry forecast for now with temperatures
rising again into the weekend.


.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Updated at 1222 AM EST Mon Feb 29 2016

Line of gusty showers, with a few embedded rumbles of thunder, and
associated cold front will pass through the TAF sites, especially
SDF and LEX, in the first few hours of the forecast. These showers
will bring gusty west winds and possibly MVFR vsbys, though
ceilings will stay well VFR. Winds will gradually settle down
once the showers exit.

Behind the front, a large area of clouds is seen on satellite from
the upper Mississippi Valley through Illinois and western Indiana.
Motion of the cloud field suggests these MVFR ceilings may affect
SDF and LEX. Model data agree with this scenario, but keep SDF and
LEX right on the edge of the cloud field. For now will need to
introduce MVFR stratocu at SDF and LEX, but will keep it above fuel
alternate and will closely monitor trends.

Otherwise, high pressure moving into the region will give us a very
pleasant day during the daylight hours with light winds and clear


.LMK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


Short Term.....EER
Long Term......EER