National Weather Service Raw Text Product

Displaying AFOS PIL: AFDLCH Received: 2012-12-25 15:34 UTC


248 
FXUS64 KLCH 251534
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
934 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012

.UPDATE...
HAVE REFRESHED GRIDS AND PUBLIC PRODUCTS WITH THE NEW TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 694 ISSUED BY SPC THROUGH 4 PM CST. CURRENTLY...SHOWERS
AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WHICH IS FROM NORTH OF JASPER THEN EXTENDING EAST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 190 CORRIDOR. THESE INITIAL CELLS ARE LIKELY ELEVATED IN
NATURE WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...WARM FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES.
THEREFORE...SHORTLY ALL STORMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SHOULD HAVE A ROOT BASE AT THE SURFACE. WITH VERY HIGH LOW
LEVEL SHEAR...THESE DISCRETE CELLS WILL HAVE A CHANCE FOR ROTATION
AND BECOMING TORNADIC. ACTIVITY WILL END LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS
DEVELOPING COLD FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY
EASTWARD. A SQUALL LINE IS STILL EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WITH STRAIGHT LINE DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED TORNADO WITH ANY BOW SEGMENTS WITHIN THE SQUALL LINE.

OF OTHER NOTE...KLCH WILL CONDUCT A 18Z SPECIAL UPPER AIR SOUNDING
IN SUPPORT OF THE SEVERE WEATHER.

RUA



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 753 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012/ 

UPDATE...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691 HAS BEEN REPLACED BY THE TORNADO
WATCH 692...THAT WILL BE IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM FOR THE FOLLOWING
PARISHES IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. ST LANDRY...LAFAYETTE... 
AND ACADIA. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL ALSO NOW INCLUDE THE NEW
PARISHES OF IBERIA... ST MARTIN... ST MARY... AND VERMILION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 610 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012/ 

AVIATION UPDATE...REGARDING 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. RADAR CURRENTLY
SHOWING CONSIDERABLE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA INTO INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS. ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP FROM COASTAL VERMILION PARISH
SOUTHWEST INTO THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY 
IS ANTICIPATED. AN EXTREMELY VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM ADVANCING 
RAPIDLY EAST THEN NORTHEAST FROM TEXAS WILL BRING INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE MORNING INTO AFTERNOON. A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTH LOUISIANA
WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY STRONG THROUGH THE DAY. AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL
PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WITH CONVECTION RAPIDLY
COMING TO AN END.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CST TUE DEC 25 2012/ 

DISCUSSION...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 691 IS OUT UNTIL 9 AM FOR COUNTIES
NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PARISHES ALONG
AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. THE WARM
FRONT HAS LIFTED INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA THIS MORNING AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 60S FROM BEAUMONT TO
LAFAYETTE. A FEW STORMS THIS MORNING HAVE SHOWN SOME ROTATION WITH
OTHERS INDICATING HAIL SPIKES. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS NOW
LIFTING INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI AND EASTERN LOUISIANA AT THIS
TIME.

THIS IS THE FIRST ROUND WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD
FRONT. THE THREAT TODAY WILL BE FROM ISOLATED TORNADOES...STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. WINDS WILL PICKUP THIS MORNING AND A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL COASTAL
COUNTIES IN TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS
EXPECTED TO EXIT SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND
CENTRAL LOUISIANA TOWARDS SUNSET. RAINS TO END BY THIS EVE ACROSS
CNTRL LA.

MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL SPILL BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH
MORNING LOWS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 30S WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR NEAR
FREEZING FOR THURSDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY HIGHS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
MAKE IT OUT OF THE 40S.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM. 

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  38  49  33  56 /  90  10  10  10  10 
KBPT  76  35  49  33  57 /  80  10  10  10  10 
KAEX  70  35  46  28  53 / 100  20  10  10  10 
KLFT  75  41  50  34  56 / 100  10  10  10  10 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU...EAST 
     CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON DAVIS...
     LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...
     UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...WEST CAMERON.

TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: HARDIN...JEFFERSON...ORANGE...SOUTHERN JASPER...
     SOUTHERN NEWTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX OUT 
     20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON LA 
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO 
     INTRACOASTAL CITY LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL 
     CITY TO CAMERON LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON 
     LA TO HIGH ISLAND TX FROM 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM LOWER 
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM. 

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: CALCASIEU LAKE...SABINE LAKE...VERMILION BAY.

&&

$$