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375 
FXUS64 KHGX 241339
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
739 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

.UPDATE...
DROPPING WIND ADVISORY FOR THE COAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED SO WILL DROP THE ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. WILL LET THE WSW CONTINUE DEPITE THE DWINDLING THREAT
FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP. ROADS ARE ICY EVERYWHERE AND FEEL IT IS
BEST JUST TO KEEP THE WARNING GOING. 43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 545 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...
SEE THE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. MARINE DISCUSSION INCLUDED
AS WELL.

40

AVIATION...
RADAR TRENDS WERE ENDING THE PRECIP OVER KCLL AND KUTS. THINK THAT
THESE LOCATIONS MAY SEE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE OR ICE PELLETS
THROUGH 13Z. TRENDED THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP AT KCXO AND KIAH.
WAS LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE ENDING OF THE PRECIP FROM KHOU AND
KSGR TO THE COAST. RADAR INDICATED ISENTROPIC LIFT WAS CONTINUING
TO GENERATE PRECIP WELL WEST OF KLBX. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR
FREEZING THROUGH ABOUT 15Z BEFORE SLOWLY WARMING ABOVE FREEZING
DURING THE LATE MORNING. THE MODELS KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN AT THESE
TWO SITES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. VFR SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH AND EARLY THIS EVENING TOWARD THE COAST.

40

MARINE...
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT RELAXES. HOWEVER...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE 
TO PROVIDE FOR STRONG WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY OVER THE 
NEARSHORE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ANOTHER 
STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST ON MONDAY WITH 
AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED FOLLOWING THE FRONT.

40

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CST FRI JAN 24 2014/ 

DISCUSSION...
SNOW AND SLEET CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS. SOME 1 TO 2 INCH TOTALS LOOK LIKELY FROM
MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE TO COLDSPRING. QUITE A LULL IN PRECIP
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION. COLDER AIR HAS SURGED INTO
THE REGION AND RESIDUAL WATER ON ROADWAYS AND BRIDGES WILL START
TO FREEZE. TXDOT IS REPORTING ICE ON MANY ROADS TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST OF HOUSTON. 

THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR SHOW PRECIP ENDING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST THIS MORNING AND THIS APPEARS TO BE BACKED UP BY RADAR WHICH
SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST. THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE REGION WILL PROBABLY NOT MEET WINTER STORM WARNING CRITERIA
BUT DON'T SEE THE SENSE IN SWITCHING THE WARNING TO AN ADVISORY AT
THIS POINT. WILL RE-EVALUATE AT 12Z ONCE THE MORNING SOUNDINGS
COME IN...BUT FEEL THE WSW COULD BE DROPPED BY 15Z. DON'T BE
SURPRISED IF AN UPDATED FORECAST IS ISSUED BETWEEN 6-7 AM.

FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW DRYING FROM THE TOP SO SNOW NORTH OF HOUSTON
WILL LOSE THEIR ICE CRYSTALS AND PROBABLY TRANSITION BACK TO ICE
PELLETS OR FREEZING RAIN. FURTHER SOUTH...06Z SOUNDING LAUNCHED AT
THE UNIV OF HOUSTON SHOWS A DEEP SATURATED LAYER WITH A WARM NOSE
BETWEEN 900-700 MB AND A SUB-FREEZING LAYER FROM 900 MB TO NEAR
1000 MB. FREEZING RAIN/SLEET MIXTURE WILL AFFECT HOUSTON METRO
AREAS FOR THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS BEFORE ENDING. THE STRONG RRQ WHICH
HAS ENHANCED LIFT IS PULLING AWAY AND OMEGA WEAKENS RATHER QUICKLY
THIS MORNING SO FEEL MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP WILL END EARLY
THIS MORNING. FCST SOUNDINGS KEEP THINGS CLOUDY ALL DAY SO DON'T
EXPECT TEMPS TO WARM MUCH. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR BY 06Z TONIGHT AND
WINDS WILL RELAX LATER TODAY. EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORY ALONG THE
COAST THRU 15Z BUT THE TREND IS FOR WINDS TO RELAX THIS MORNING.

WARMER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED SAT/SUN AND MAX TEMPS SHOULD EXCEED 60
DEGREES BOTH DAYS. ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE BACK IN THE 20S TUES/WED MORNING
WITH MAYBE A FEW SPOTS FALLING INTO THE TEENS. BOTH THE ECMWF/GFS
ARE DRY WITH THE NEXT FRONT WHILE THE CANADIAN BRINGS SOME PRECIP
ACROSS THE AREA. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER SOLUTIONS FOR NOW. A
WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD BRING SOME RAIN BACK TO THE AREA TOWARD THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      37  29  59  40  67 /  10  10  10  10  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              36  31  59  42  67 /  20  10  10  10  10 
GALVESTON (GLS)            37  37  55  48  64 /  40  10  10  10  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...JACKSON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING 
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 
     OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP 
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO 
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...43